tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65613305057673771092024-02-20T17:50:51.712+08:00順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市 Lin.tw★股票進出需審慎評估並預設停損及停利 股市瞬息萬變 以上資料純屬研究性質,僅作參考,不做任何保證及承諾,使用者應審慎考量本身之投資風險與能力,使用者若依本資料投資發生損失須自行負責,本專欄不負任何責任。順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.comBlogger957125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-72443438510505924942022-09-04T02:00:00.001+08:002022-09-04T02:00:00.211+08:00~~台股之中期另一波段低點之位置與時間預期應為??<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><u style="text-underline: double;"><span style="background: lime; mso-highlight: lime;">~~</span></u></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: double;"><span style="background: lime; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: lime;">台股八月份<span lang="EN-US">(08/31)</span>之收月線收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">15095</span>點<span lang="EN-US">~~<o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">承襲之前筆者之<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文皆有提前說明台股後勢之看法,還是不管消息面變化,按照慣例直接由技術分析直接切入看台股後市發展<span lang="EN-US">(</span>時間與空間之密碼<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之位置 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:<span lang="EN-US"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年月份之<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點則由<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月時之<span lang="EN-US">17420</span>點向下調降為<span lang="EN-US">16725</span>點</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">意即:台股若無法在<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月、尤其是在月底月線收盤指數站上<span lang="EN-US">16725</span>點的話,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來開始震盪盤頭;且台股進而由今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份起正式起跌確認,進行中期波段時間與空間之修正。進入<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份在時序為台股修正波之第五個月,低點為<span lang="EN-US">(07/12)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">13928</span>點後初步止跌反彈;預計反彈結束之後,下一次重新壓回後重新落底的時間約<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份<span lang="EN-US">(</span>即<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份起跌之第<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月時間轉折<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">[
</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">時間部分</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">
]~</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> (</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">預期另一低點之落底時間<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股在時序上:台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來中長多趨勢,至今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份,共計上漲<span lang="EN-US">21</span>個月,就中期整理修正波所需之時間:合理之修正<span lang="EN-US">5~8</span>月誠屬合情合理。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">意即:台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份,時序為台股修正波之第五個月。預計台股此中期修正波應整理至今<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年下半年<span lang="EN-US">H2(Q3~Q4)</span>之可能性居高。即<span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股之中期修正波段之底部時間應出現在<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年下半年的<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月<span lang="EN-US">(</span>即<span lang="EN-US">(07/12)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">13928</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、另一低點或是另一腳則可望出現在今年之<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">就台股現有之技術面來預測另一波段低點位置參考
<span lang="EN-US">]<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">今筆者對台股另一波段低點位置,採用另一簡易之計算方式來預估如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(1)..(01/05)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">之高點<span lang="EN-US">18619</span>點,拉回至<span lang="EN-US">(05/12)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">15616</span>點,共計<span lang="EN-US">3003</span>點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(2)..(05/31)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">之高點<span lang="EN-US">16811</span>點,拉回至<span lang="EN-US">(07/12)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">13928</span>點,共計<span lang="EN-US">2883</span>點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(3)..</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(08/17)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">之高點<span lang="EN-US">15475</span>點,拉回取用上述<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>與<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>之跌幅即拉回<span lang="EN-US">2883~3003</span>點之幅度,預期台股若無法帶大量<span lang="EN-US">(</span>即至少約<span lang="EN-US">2500~2700</span>億元以上之大成交日均量<span lang="EN-US">)</span>向上突破上檔短壓區域<span lang="EN-US">15475~15616</span>點;且反而再次向下跌破前低點<span lang="EN-US">(07/12)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">13928</span>點的話,則筆者將</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">以較保守之方式來預期下次台股之波段低點位置約在<span lang="EN-US">12472~12592</span>點之間。而則可望出現在今年之<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份</span></u></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">]</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲筆者在本專欄至少有<span lang="EN-US">2</span>年之久,持續地提醒股友:台股本身無法引領全球長線之多空趨勢。即台股長線雖然</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">本身就具有自己多或空的趨勢力量;惟是否能夠順利完成目標達陣,或是行情趨勢繼續擴延、抑或是縮水夭折等,則須參考視國際歐美盤而定。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">筆者在此</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">明確告知</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:假如投資朋友一時間若是無法判讀台股後市短中長期的多空趨勢時,筆者強烈建議:鎖定<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美股四大指數之漲跌為研判之重要參考依據仍不<span style="color: #333333;">改變。</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow; mso-shading: yellow;">結論</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">]
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股若無法向上突破上檔短壓區域<span lang="EN-US">15475~15616</span>點;且一旦跌破前低點<span lang="EN-US">(07/12)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">13928</span>點的話,筆者以較保守之方式來預期下次台股之波段低點位置約在<span lang="EN-US">12472~12592</span>點之間。而則可望出現在今年之<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">現階段台股操作,持股僅維持<span lang="EN-US">3</span>成以內即可,且保持機動性。個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。長線選股標的逢低持續鎖定電動車相關<span lang="EN-US">+</span>三能<span lang="EN-US">(</span>綠能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>節能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>除能<span lang="EN-US">)+</span>低軌道衛星概念等族群類股,為長多伺機逢低布局之標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-10570884576918433832022-07-31T03:00:00.001+08:002022-07-31T03:00:00.207+08:00~~台股7月如預期落底反彈之後?? 台股8月的高檔目標位置?? ~~<p><span lang="EN-US"> <b> </b></span><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">承襲之前幾期筆者之</span><span lang="EN-US">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">文皆有提前說明台股後勢之看法</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">還是不管消息面變化</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">直接直接由技術分析直接切入看台股後市發展</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">時間與空間之密碼</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">:</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">空間部分<span lang="EN-US"> ]~</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股中期空間波下修之初步滿足點預估</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ] </span></b></p><p><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">(</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">初步落底空間暫如預期<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:</span></u></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股本中長波段<u>由<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年之低點<span lang="EN-US">8523</span>點,至今<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年之高點<span lang="EN-US">18619</span>點,共計上漲<span lang="EN-US">10096</span>點。若是分別以<span lang="EN-US">1/3(</span>強勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、<span lang="EN-US">1/2(</span>正常修正<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、<span lang="EN-US">2/3(</span>弱勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>等之回檔修正而言,計算結果分別為</u>:</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(A)..1/3(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">強勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:<span lang="EN-US">15253</span>點。</span></b></p><p><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">(B).. 1/2(</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">正常修正<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:<span lang="EN-US">13571</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">14000</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></u></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(C).. 2/3(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">弱勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:<span lang="EN-US">11888</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">12000</span>點關卡<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">一如前<span lang="EN-US">po</span>文預期以波段眼光而言:本波台股波段修正拉回整理,回檔直達<span lang="EN-US">. 1/2(</span>正常修正<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:</span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">1/2</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">目標<span lang="EN-US">13571</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">14000</span>點,而台股本波低點出現於<span lang="EN-US">(07/12)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">13928</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>後止跌反彈;後市發展主要需視美國盤之走勢而定</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">[
</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">時間部分<span lang="EN-US"> ]~</span></span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股中期時間波之預估<span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></span></u></b></p><p><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">(</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">落底時間暫如預期<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:</span></u></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股在時序上:台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來中長多趨勢,至今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份,共計上漲<span lang="EN-US">21</span>個月,就中期整理修正波所需之時間:合理之修正<span lang="EN-US">5~8</span>月誠屬合情合理。</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">意即:台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份,時序為台股修正波之第五個月。預計台股此中期修正波應整理至今<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年下半年<span lang="EN-US">H2(Q3~Q4)</span>之可能性居高。即<span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股之中期修正波段之底部時間應出現在<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年下半年的<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月、或者是<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月之際</span>。</span></b></p><p><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: lime; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: lime;"><br /></span></u></b></p><p><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: lime; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: lime;">~~</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: lime; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: lime;">台股七月在驚滔駭浪中,<span lang="EN-US">(07/29)</span>收月線收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">15000</span>點<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></u></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">: </span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年月份之<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點則由<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月時之<span lang="EN-US">18273</span>點向下調降為<span lang="EN-US">17420</span>點</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">意即:台股若無法在<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月、尤其是在月底月線收盤指數站上<span lang="EN-US">17420</span>點的話,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來開始震盪盤頭;且台股進而由今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份起正式起跌確認,進行中期波段時間與空間之修正。進入<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份在時序為台股修正波之第五個月,初步止跌反彈;預計反彈結束之後,下一次重新壓回後重新落底的時間約<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份<span lang="EN-US">(</span>即<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份起跌之第<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月時間轉折<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲前一<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文即明確告知:短線台股至<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月,市場空頭氣氛濃厚;惟短線因賣超與負乖離率太大,多數跌深股隨時都有技術性反彈之機會。故預期台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份各類股只要短線跌幅深且大於指數跌幅者,技術面上將有輪動作跌深反彈逃命之機會。完全如預期中,投資朋友請把握類股輪動機會,逢高分批汰弱,回收資金;空手搶短者務必擅設停利停損。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">就形態學看台股下檔<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>滿足點位置<span lang="EN-US"> ]<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">承襲先前<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文中所言:就形態學觀點而言分析如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">頭部型態之技術面下檔之基本滿足跌幅位置為</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:台股<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線圖明確顯示已進入中期波段修正、<span lang="EN-US">16162~18619</span>點區間有形成頭肩頂型態的警訊;而台股現階段則以處於頭肩頂型態之去年<span lang="EN-US">(10/05)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16162</span>點、與今年<span lang="EN-US">(03/08)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">167764</span>點,兩點的頸線目前位置約在<span lang="EN-US">17000</span>點附近,短線目前該頸線早已確認正式跌破;技術面於型態破頸線之後,為期將近<span lang="EN-US">1</span>年之日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線頭尖頂之型態確認,此</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">頭肩頂型態之下檔<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>初步滿足位置約落在<span lang="EN-US">13700~13800</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(14000</span>點之下<span lang="EN-US">)~~</span>參考<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股本波低點出現於<span lang="EN-US">(07/12)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">13928</span>點,已經接近上述頭肩頂型態之下檔<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>初步滿足位置約落在<span lang="EN-US">13700~13800</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(14000</span>點之下<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,僅僅差一步之遙。恰巧收盤後當天晚上,國安基金宣布即日起正式進場。隔日起台股即隨國際股市大漲後,止跌反彈迄今。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">]</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲筆者在本專欄至少有<span lang="EN-US">2</span>年之久,筆者依舊提醒股友:台股本身無法引領全球長線之多空趨勢。即台股長線雖然</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">本身就具有自己多或空的趨勢力量;惟是否能夠順利完成目標達陣,或是行情趨勢繼續擴延、抑或是縮水夭折等,則須參考視國際歐美盤而定。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">這就是筆者一直在 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">] </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中明確告知</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:假如投資朋友一時無法判讀台股後市短中長期的多空趨勢之前,強烈建議:鎖定<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美股四大指數之漲跌為研判之重要參考不<span style="color: #333333;">改變。</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow; mso-shading: yellow;">結論</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">]
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:台股本波低點出現於<span lang="EN-US">(07/12)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">13928</span>點出現止跌訊號,是長線落底或是跌深反彈<span lang="EN-US">?</span>仍待確認。保守觀察:暫時先以<span lang="EN-US">”</span>跌深技術性反彈<span lang="EN-US">”</span>即可。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">而</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月反彈之上檔目標為:<span lang="EN-US">15491~16273</span>點</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(PS</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:台股整個跌幅<span lang="EN-US">18619-13928=4691</span>點,<span lang="EN-US">1/3</span>反彈目標區為<span lang="EN-US">15491</span>點,<span lang="EN-US">1/2</span>反彈目標區為<span lang="EN-US">16273</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">目前個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。持股者請於上檔目標區<span lang="EN-US">(15491~16273</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>務必調整持股汰弱;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">空手者則以<span lang="EN-US">5</span>成以內現金部位,切入車用、綠能<span lang="EN-US">(</span>儲能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>節能<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、低軌衛星等長多類股。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-76887945381354390932022-07-03T02:00:00.048+08:002022-07-03T02:00:00.211+08:00 ~~台股7月尋找短(或中)期低點位置(假如是一波到底的話)??<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">承襲前幾期筆者之</span><span lang="EN-US">PO</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">文皆有提前說明台股後勢之看法</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">關於利多與利空消息面變化請看報紙與新聞</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">讓我們直接直接由技術分析直接切入看台股後市發展</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">時間與空間之密碼</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">空間部分<span lang="EN-US"> ]~</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股中期空間波下修之初步滿足點預估</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股本中長波段<u>由<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年之低點<span lang="EN-US">8523</span>點,至今<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年之高點<span lang="EN-US">18619</span>點,共計上漲<span lang="EN-US">10096</span>點。若是分別以<span lang="EN-US">1/3(</span>強勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、<span lang="EN-US">1/2(</span>正常修正<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、<span lang="EN-US">2/3(</span>弱勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>等之回檔修正而言,計算結果分別為</u>:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;"><span style="color: red;">(A)..1/3(</span></span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;"><span style="color: red;">強勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:<span lang="EN-US">15253</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>接近近日<span lang="EN-US">(05/12)</span>低點<span lang="EN-US">15616</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span>。</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">(B).. 1/2(</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">正常修正<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:<span lang="EN-US">13571</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">14000</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">(C).. 2/3(</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">弱勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:<span lang="EN-US">11888</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">12000</span>點關卡<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">故若是以中期眼光而言:本波修正台股現階段之拉回整理,已直接跌破<span lang="EN-US">1/3</span>強勢整理位置<span lang="EN-US">15253</span>點,暫時仍在相對之強勢整理格局;未來目標看: <span lang="EN-US">1/2</span>或是更低之<span lang="EN-US">2/3</span>位置,則就須視國際盤,尤其是美國盤之走勢而定。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">時間部分<span lang="EN-US"> ]~</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股中期時間波之預估</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股在時序上:台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來中長多趨勢,至今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份,共計上漲<span lang="EN-US">21</span>個月,就中期整理修正波所需之時間:合理之修正<span lang="EN-US">5~8</span>月誠屬合情合理。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">意即:台股若無法在<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月、尤其是在月底月線收盤指數站上<span lang="EN-US">18273</span>點的話,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來暫時終結中長多趨勢,而開始震盪盤頭;且台股進而由今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份起正式起跌確認,進行中期波段時間與空間之修正。現階段進入<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份,時序為台股修正波之第五個月。預計台股此中期修正波應整理至今<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年下半年<span lang="EN-US">H2(Q3~Q4)</span>之可能性居高。即台股之中期修正波段之底部時間應出現在<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年下半年的<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月、或者是<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月之際。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年月份之<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點則由<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月時之<span lang="EN-US">18485</span>點緊緊微幅調降為<span lang="EN-US">18273</span>點</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">意即:台股若無法在<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月、尤其是在月底月線收盤指數站上<span lang="EN-US">18273</span>點的話,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來暫時終結中長多趨勢,而開始震盪盤頭;且台股進而由今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份起正式起跌確認,進行中期波段時間與空間之修正。現階段進入<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份,剛好在時序為台股修正波之第五個月。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股<span lang="EN-US">(06/30)(</span>四<span lang="EN-US">)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月份收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">14825</span>點,該位置距離台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月份之<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US"> 18485</span>點,高達<span lang="EN-US">3660</span>點之譜,市場空頭氣勢大獲全勝中。惟短線因賣超與負乖離率太大,多數跌深股隨時都有技術性反彈之機會;但就順勢操作之原則:只要波段下跌趨勢尚未被扭轉之前,若遇反彈請減碼為先,尤其是相對弱勢股。故預期台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份各類股只要短線跌幅深且大於指數跌幅者,技術面上將有輪動作跌深反彈逃命之機會。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">就形態學看台股下檔<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>滿足點位置在<span lang="EN-US">??(</span>假如台股想一波直接到底的話</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> )</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲先前<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文中所言:就形態學觀點而言分析如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">頭部型態之技術面下檔之基本滿足跌幅位置為</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:台股<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線圖明確顯示已進入中期波段修正、<span lang="EN-US">16162~18619</span>點區間有形成頭肩頂型態的警訊;而台股現階段則以處於頭肩頂型態之去年<span lang="EN-US">(10/05)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16162</span>點、與今年<span lang="EN-US">(03/08)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">167764</span>點,兩點的頸線目前位置約在<span lang="EN-US">17000</span>點附近,短線目前該頸線早已確認正式跌破;技術面於型態破頸線之後,為期將近<span lang="EN-US">1</span>年之日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線頭尖頂之型態確認,此</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">頭尖頂型態之下檔<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>初步滿足位置約落在<span lang="EN-US">13700\~13800</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(14000</span>點之下<span lang="EN-US">)~~</span>參考<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">下跌趨勢在未終結期間,每每在極短線跌深之後,隨時都會有跌深技術面反彈逃命之機會;惟若下跌之趨勢未正式扭轉為多頭趨勢之前,逢反彈皆是以調節持股,尤其相對弱勢之族群應首先退出、收回資金為先,等待下一次重新出擊反敗為勝之籌碼。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">]</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲筆者在本專欄至少有<span lang="EN-US">2</span>年之久,筆者最早皆提醒股友:台股是全球世界村之重要供應鏈成員之一;本身仍無法引領全球長線之多空趨勢。即台股長線雖然</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">本身就具有自己多或空的趨勢力量;惟是否能夠順利完成目標達陣,或是行情趨勢繼續擴延、抑或是縮水夭折等,則須參考視國際歐美盤而定。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">這就是筆者一直在 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">] </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中明確告知</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:假如投資朋友一時無法判讀台股後市短中長期的多空趨勢之前,強烈建議:鎖定<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美股四大指數之漲跌為研判之重要參考不<span style="color: #333333;">改變。</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow; mso-shading: yellow;">結論</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股中期波段空頭整理格局持續探底中;假如台股想一波直接到底的話<span lang="EN-US">(PS:</span></span></b><span lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">頭尖頂型態之下檔<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>初步滿足位置約落在<span lang="EN-US">13700\~13800</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(14000</span>點之下<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,就請先回補空頭部位;並請隨時翻多。現階段請保持現今等待波段空翻多隻重要轉折訊號出現再出擊。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">目前個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。持股務必請暫時控制在<span lang="EN-US">2</span>成以內短打即可,手中須持有相對<span lang="EN-US">8</span>成以上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">資金部位,或暫時空手觀望亦可,隨時保持機動性。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-24764169851709795522022-05-29T03:00:00.031+08:002022-05-29T03:00:00.197+08:00~~台股6月”輪流反彈”找賣點??~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">不談消息面事後馬後砲</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">直接由技術分析直接切入看台股後市發展</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年月份之<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點則由<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月時之<span lang="EN-US">18611</span>點微幅調降為<span lang="EN-US">18485</span>點</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 意即:台股若無法在<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月、尤其是在<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月底月線收盤指數站上<span lang="EN-US">18485</span>點的話,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來中長多趨勢,幾乎確認已經告一段落,且由今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份起已正式轉弱確認,進行中期波段時間與空間之修正。現階段進入<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月份,時序為台股修正波之第四個月。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股中期時間波之預估</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 台股在時序上:台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來中長多趨勢,至今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份,共計上漲<span lang="EN-US">21</span>個月,就中期整理修正波所需之時間:合理之修正<span lang="EN-US">5~8</span>月誠屬合情合理。預計台股此中期修正波應整理至今<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年下半年<span lang="EN-US">H2(Q3~Q4)</span>之可能性居高。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股中期空間波之下修滿足點預估</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 台股本中長波段</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">由<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年之低點<span lang="EN-US">8523</span>點,至今<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年之高點<span lang="EN-US">18619</span>點,共計上漲<span lang="EN-US">10096</span>點。若是分別以<span lang="EN-US">1/3(</span>強勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、<span lang="EN-US">1/2(</span>正常修正<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、<span lang="EN-US">2/3(</span>弱勢整理<span lang="EN-US">)</span>等之回檔修正而言,計算結果分別為<span lang="EN-US">15253</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>接近近日<span lang="EN-US">(05/12)</span>低點<span lang="EN-US">15616</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、<span lang="EN-US">13571</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">14000</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、<span lang="EN-US">11888</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">12000</span>點關卡<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。故若是以中期眼光而言:本波修正台股現階段之拉回整理暫時仍在相對之強勢整理格局;未來是否再往下拉回至<span lang="EN-US">1/2</span>或是更低之<span lang="EN-US">2/3</span>位置,則就須視國際盤,尤其是美國盤之走勢而定。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">[ </span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">預估<span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月份行情:尚處於跌深反彈逃命機率高。</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 台股<span lang="EN-US">(05/27)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span>之收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">16266</span>點。距離台股<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月份之月線收盤只剩下兩個交易日,該位置距離台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">18611</span>點與<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US"> 18485</span>點,分別為<span lang="EN-US">2345</span>點與<span lang="EN-US">2219</span>點,故要站上應機會微乎其微;故預期台股<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月份行情仍處於中期整理之反彈整理格局裡,區間震盪來回整理居多。預估各類族群:電子、非電子、金融等類股,輪流輪動反彈。亦即各類股只要短線跌幅深且大於指數跌幅者,將有輪動作跌深反彈逃命之機會。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">就形態學之觀點看台股之後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 承襲先前<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文中所言:就形態學觀點而言:台股<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線圖明確顯示已進入中期波段修正、<span lang="EN-US">16162~18619</span>點區間有形成頭肩頂型態的警訊;而台股現階段則以處於頭肩頂型態之去年<span lang="EN-US">(10/05)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16162</span>點、與今年<span lang="EN-US">(03/08)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">167764</span>點,兩點的頸線目前位置約在<span lang="EN-US">17000</span>點附近,短線目前該頸線已暫時失守跌破;技術面於型態破頸線之後,理應或有機會做出反彈逃命波,<span lang="EN-US">17000~17200</span>點壓力區域理應是逢高減碼的位置。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">頭部型態之技術面下檔之基本滿足跌幅位置為</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:在未出現<span lang="EN-US">”</span>破底翻之假跌破<span lang="EN-US">”</span>的翻多訊號之前:則波段之下黨技術面<span lang="EN-US">1</span>:<span lang="EN-US">1</span>之低檔下檔測幅基本測幅滿足位置為<span lang="EN-US">14941(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">15000</span>點附近<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,台股短線<span lang="EN-US">(05/12)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">15616</span>點已十分接近;若是極短線有在急跌,就算跌破<span lang="EN-US">(05/12)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">15616</span>點,技術面仍具破底翻之強力反彈,故持股暫時不必再殺低,可以靜待反彈再伺機逢高調節減碼即可。<span lang="EN-US">~</span>參考<span lang="EN-US">~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">]</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 筆者最早告知:現階段好多分析同業亦朗朗上口:台股是全球世界村之重要供應鏈成員之一;本身仍無法引領全球長線之多空趨勢。即台股長線雖然</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">本身就具有自己多或空的趨勢力量;惟是否能夠順利完成目標達陣,或是行情趨勢繼續擴延、抑或是縮水夭折等,則須參考視國際歐美盤而定。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">這就是筆者一直在 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包 <span lang="EN-US">] </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中明確告知</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:假如投資朋友一時無法判讀台股後市短中長期的多空趨勢之前,強烈建議:鎖定<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美股四大指數之漲跌為研判之重要參考不<span style="color: #333333;">改變。</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow; mso-shading: yellow;">結論</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股中期波段空頭整理格局持續中;一如筆者先前<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文皆明確指出:現階段台股極短線則可望於五月短線跌深探底後,展開跌深反彈逃命;預期台股<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月裡持續處於反彈格局中。故建議逢反彈依但爆大量時,請暫時先行調節調整持股為優先。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 在選股操作上參考:傳統的<span lang="EN-US">Q1</span>多方題材:高殖利率、車用電子電動車、乾淨能源<span lang="EN-US">(</span>風力發電太陽能等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、通膨相關受益<span lang="EN-US">(</span>金融<span lang="EN-US">+</span>資產等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、股東會<span lang="EN-US">(</span>軋空回補<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、原物料等族群,若是再加上三低一高<span lang="EN-US">(</span>低基期<span lang="EN-US">+</span>低本益比<span lang="EN-US">+</span>低價位<span lang="EN-US">+</span>高殖利率<span lang="EN-US">)</span>都是可以逢低留意的標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。持股務必請暫時控制在<span lang="EN-US">3</span>成以內即可,手中須持有相對<span lang="EN-US">7</span>成以上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">資金部位,或是想空手觀望亦可,隨時保持機動性。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">~~</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-82298217699558176612022-05-02T02:00:00.047+08:002022-05-02T02:00:00.214+08:00~~台股5月行情很刺激!(先下殺+後逃命!)~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">在筆者超過</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年以上操作實戰經驗值而言</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">:資深的</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">投資朋友都很清楚</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">筆者是</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">標準技術分析之基本教義派</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">;</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">惟對於影響金融市場最深遠的基本面題材</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,筆者認為</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">都不會是疫情</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">、封港封城、</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">烏俄戰爭等現階段最熱門的話題</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">而相對地</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">通膨</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">升息</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">等這些已經消失將近</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">餘年的用詞</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,則</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">已確立正式重新降臨地球</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">切記</span><span lang="EN-US">! </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">通膨、升息等絕對不會忽然出現後</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">就忽然消失</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">;</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">需知</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">通膨、升息等</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">皆是屬於長期趨勢性的產物</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">一旦出現絕對至少有</span><span lang="EN-US">3~5</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">年的趨勢</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">甚至更長久</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">更重要的是<span lang="EN-US">"</span>通膨、升息等<span lang="EN-US">"</span>題材這是從<span lang="EN-US">21</span>世紀迄今所有資歷較年輕投資之參與者,從未曾真正實際面對到之實戰經驗值,故千萬別看輕<span lang="EN-US">”</span>通膨怪獸<span lang="EN-US">”</span>對全球政經的長期破壞性;<span lang="EN-US">”</span>通膨<span lang="EN-US">”</span>的後遺症絕對比區域戰爭與疫情更深遠、恐怖可怕。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> “</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">升息<span lang="EN-US">”</span>這才是未來長線影響區是多空的最重大變數。亦是近<span lang="EN-US">20</span>多年新世代的新投資人從未面對與經歷的一個重大考驗。切勿掉以輕心才是。由近來<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美元匯率<span lang="EN-US">"</span>的超級強勢即可看出:全球這<span lang="EN-US">20</span>多年以來到處攻城掠地的熱錢游資將逐步撤退、紛紛流回美國本土。對於未來資金萎縮的金融市場的榮枯與考驗似乎才剛開始而已。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點則由<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月時之<span lang="EN-US">18334</span>點持續向上提升至<span lang="EN-US">18611</span>點</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">亦即台股若無法在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月、尤其是在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月底月線收盤指數站上<span lang="EN-US">18611</span>點的話,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來中長多趨勢,幾乎確認已經告一段落,且由今年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份起已正式轉弱確認,進行中期波段時間與空間之修正。現階段進入<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月份,為台股修正波之第三個月。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">[ </span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">預估<span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月份行情:跌深反彈逃命機率高。</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月份之收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">16592</span>點。該位置距離台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">18611</span>點,兩者共計相距負乖離達<span lang="EN-US">2019</span>點。故站在多方觀點而言:雖然台股波段趨勢已明確轉空;惟短線上出現超賣嚴重,故預估台股內部各類股只要短線跌幅深且大於指數跌幅者,將有輪動作跌深反彈逃命之機會。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">就形態學之觀點看台股之後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲先前<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文中所言:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">單純就台股週<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之型態學觀點而言:台股由去年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月迄今將近<span lang="EN-US">8</span>個月時間,於<span lang="EN-US">16162~18619</span>點區間震盪整理待變。以下筆者仍將暫不理會消息面利多利空訊息之干擾,純粹就線論線分析如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">就技術面<span lang="EN-US">”</span>形態學<span lang="EN-US">+</span>量價關係<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之觀點而言:亦即台股之大長多趨勢仍不變,長期之大目標上看<span lang="EN-US">20000</span>點、甚至<span lang="EN-US">22000</span>點之機會仍存在<span lang="EN-US">(</span>但到達時間需要往後延了<span lang="EN-US">)</span>;惟現階段台股將先必須先面對長多趨勢過程中之波段中期修正整理。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲先前<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文中所言:就形態學觀點而言:台股<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線圖明確顯示已進入中期波段修正、<span lang="EN-US">16162~18619</span>點區間有形成頭肩頂型態的警訊;而台股現階段則以處於頭肩頂型態之去年<span lang="EN-US">(10/05)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16162</span>點、與今年<span lang="EN-US">(03/08)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">167764</span>點,兩點的頸線目前位置約在<span lang="EN-US">17000</span>點附近,短線目前該頸線已暫時失守跌破;技術面於型態破頸線之後,理應或有機會做出反彈逃命波,<span lang="EN-US">17000~17200</span>點壓力區域理應是逢高減碼的位置。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">頭部型態之技術面下檔之基本滿足跌幅位置為</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:在未出現<span lang="EN-US">”</span>破底翻之假跌破<span lang="EN-US">”</span>的翻多訊號之前:則波段之下黨技術面<span lang="EN-US">1</span>:<span lang="EN-US">1</span>之低檔下檔測幅基本測幅滿足位置為<span lang="EN-US">14941(</span>約<span lang="EN-US">15000</span>點附近<span lang="EN-US">)~</span>參考<span lang="EN-US">~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">故在台股短線操作上:在未正式站上右肩高點<span lang="EN-US">(03/30)</span>的高點<span lang="EN-US">17770</span>點之前,逢反彈逢高,請先行調節減碼為優先,至少提高現金比例至<span lang="EN-US">7</span>成以上。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">]</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股是全球世界村之重要供應鏈成員之一;本身仍無法引領全球長線之多空趨勢。即台股長線雖然</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">本身就具有自己多或空的趨勢力量;惟是否能夠順利完成目標達陣,或是行情趨勢繼續擴延、抑或是縮水夭折等,則須參考視國際歐美盤而定。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">這就是筆者一直在 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包 <span lang="EN-US">] </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中明確告知</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:假如投資朋友一時無法判讀台股後市短中長期的多空趨勢之前,強烈建議:鎖定<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美股四大指數之漲跌為研判之重要參考不<span style="color: #333333;">改變。</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">通膨<span lang="EN-US">”</span>對國際金融市場之影響力最為深遠;只要<span lang="EN-US">FED</span>仍具調升利率空間的趨勢,則市場的熱錢與游資就會被緊縮與壓抑。投資市場將持續受影響,不可不多加謹慎小心。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow; mso-shading: yellow;">結論</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股中期波段空頭整理格局持續中;現階段台股極短線則可望於五月份裡先探底後,展開跌深反彈逃命。故建議逢反彈暫時請先行調節調整持股為優先。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">在選股操作上參考:傳統的<span lang="EN-US">Q1</span>多方題材:高殖利率、乾淨能源<span lang="EN-US">(</span>風力發電太陽能等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、通膨相關受益<span lang="EN-US">(</span>金融<span lang="EN-US">+</span>資產等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、股東會<span lang="EN-US">(</span>軋空回補<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、原物料等族群,若是再加上三低一高<span lang="EN-US">(</span>低基期<span lang="EN-US">+</span>低本益比<span lang="EN-US">+</span>低價位<span lang="EN-US">+</span>高殖利率<span lang="EN-US">)</span>都是可以逢低留意的標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。持股務必請暫時控制在<span lang="EN-US">3</span>成以內即可,手中須持有相對<span lang="EN-US">7</span>成以上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">資金部位,或是想空手觀望亦可,隨時保持機動性。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-55219967287071612822022-04-05T02:00:00.053+08:002022-04-05T02:00:00.599+08:00~~台股在中期頭部修正之”右肩反彈波”???.~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">~<u style="text-underline: thick;">”</u></span></b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">烏克蘭人民的平安與和平</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">”</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">禱告</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">!!!!~</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> 2022</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">年虎年迄今</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">疫情</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">烏俄戰爭接仍在持續中</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">全球國際金融市場之消息面利空消息似乎尚未完全出盡</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">其實</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">近來投資朋友應該可以感受到萬物皆漲</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">生活痛苦指數</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">越來越高</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">;這情形凱全球各地皆然、並非台灣本地獨有。承襲全一本專欄隻<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文及明確指出:國際金融市場自<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年、甚至<span lang="EN-US">2000</span>年以來迄今長期以來皆處於低利率,導致全球游資到處流竄、讓相關各種商品與房地產等皆出現投機炒作的泡沫現象早已充斥市場。因通膨訊號幾乎已確立,勢必導致長期低利率的上揚,這是從<span lang="EN-US">21</span>世紀迄今所有資歷較年輕投資之參與者,從未成真正實際面對到之經驗值,千萬別看輕<span lang="EN-US">”</span>通膨怪獸<span lang="EN-US">”</span>對全球政經的破壞性;筆者認為<span lang="EN-US">”</span>通膨<span lang="EN-US">”</span>絕對比區域戰爭與疫情更恐怖可怕。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> "升息" 這才是未來長線影響區是多空的最重大變數。亦是近20多年新世代的投資人從未面對與經歷的一個重大考驗。切勿掉以輕心才是</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲筆者本專欄前一</span><span lang="EN-US">PO</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">文所言</span><span lang="EN-US">(PS:</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">詳請參閱</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">.</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股的長多格局”初露賣訊”<span lang="EN-US">????.......~~</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2771197)</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">;而筆者認為若是站在長線全球總體政治經濟基本面的觀點而言:<span lang="EN-US">”</span>通膨與未來利率走向<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之趨勢政策才是真正的重中之重。<span lang="EN-US">FED</span>的利率政策才是所謂消息面關注的重點。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點則由<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月時之<span lang="EN-US">18101</span>點持續向上提升至<span lang="EN-US">18334</span>點</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">亦即台股若無法在<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月、尤其是在<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月底月線收盤指數站上<span lang="EN-US">18334</span>點的話,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來中長多趨勢,可能暫時告一段落,<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份已正式轉弱確認,進行中期波段時間與空間之修正。現階段進入<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月份,為台股修正波之第二個月</span></b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">預計<span lang="EN-US">4~5</span>月台股可望出現誘姦逃命反彈格局,合理的高點有機會重新挑戰<span lang="EN-US">18000</span>點關卡,</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">估計最高約<span lang="EN-US">18149~18235</span>點</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。逢高建議分批太弱減碼為優先。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">就形態學之觀點看台股之後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">單純就台股週<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之型態學觀點而言:台股由去年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月迄今將近<span lang="EN-US">8</span>個月時間,於<span lang="EN-US">16162~18619</span>點區間震盪整理待變。以下筆者仍將暫不理會消息面利多利空訊息之干擾,純粹就線論線分析如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">就技術面<span lang="EN-US">”</span>形態學<span lang="EN-US">+</span>量價關係<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之觀點而言:亦即台股之大長多趨勢仍不變,長期之大目標上看<span lang="EN-US">20000</span>點、甚至<span lang="EN-US">22000</span>點之機會仍存在<span lang="EN-US">(</span>但到達時間需要往後延了<span lang="EN-US">)</span>;惟現階段台股將先必須先面對長多趨勢過程中之波段中期修正整理。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">就形態學觀點而言:台股週線中期波段修正、<span lang="EN-US">16162~18619</span>點區間有形成頭肩頂型態的警訊;而台股此刻則應處於頭肩頂型態之右肩反彈逃命格局中。技術面暫時先預期<span lang="EN-US">”</span>右肩之高點<span lang="EN-US">"</span>約在<span lang="EN-US">18149~18235</span>點之間。亦即台股短線於<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月、甚至於<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月仍有機會重新挑戰上檔<span lang="EN-US">18000</span>點關卡以上之壓力;惟屆時將是賣點而非買點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">一旦下檔<span lang="EN-US">16764</span>點、甚至<span lang="EN-US">16162</span>點的重要支撐再被跌破的話,則中期頭部<span lang="EN-US">”</span>頭肩頂頭部之高低點差距<span lang="EN-US">2000~2500</span>點之跨距,頸線一旦失守,以<span lang="EN-US">1</span>:<span lang="EN-US">1</span>之技術面基本最小測幅則將下探<span lang="EN-US">14000</span>點以下之可能。<span lang="EN-US">~</span>參考<span lang="EN-US">~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 故在台股短線操作上:在未正式站上<span lang="EN-US">17939</span>點之前,逢反彈逢高,請先行調節減碼為優先,至少提高現金比例至<span lang="EN-US">7</span>成以上。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">]</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股是全球世界村之重要供應鏈成員之一;本身仍無法引領全球長線之多空趨勢。即台股長線雖然</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">本身就具有自己多或空的趨勢力量;惟是否能夠順利完成目標達陣,或是行情趨勢繼續擴延、抑或是縮水夭折等,則須參考視國際歐美盤而定。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">這就是筆者一直在 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包 <span lang="EN-US">] </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中明確告知</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:假如投資朋友一時無法判讀台股後市短中長期的多空趨勢之前,強烈建議:鎖定<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美股四大指數之漲跌為研判之重要參考不<span style="color: #333333;">改變。</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">通膨<span lang="EN-US">”</span>對國際金融市場之影響力最為深遠;只要<span lang="EN-US">FED</span>仍具調升利率空間的趨勢,則市場的熱錢與游資就會被緊縮與壓抑。投資市場將持續受影響,不可不多加謹慎小心。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow; mso-shading: yellow;">結論</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股原長多頭趨勢線已出現警訊;現階段台股短線暫時處於跌深反彈格局。建議逢反彈暫時請先行調節調整持股為優先。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">在選股操作上參考:傳統的<span lang="EN-US">Q1</span>多方題材:台積電相關族群<span lang="EN-US">(</span>節能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>綠能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>儲能<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、通膨相關受益<span lang="EN-US">(</span>金融<span lang="EN-US">+</span>資產等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、股東會<span lang="EN-US">(</span>軋空回補<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、原物料等族群,若是再加上三低一高<span lang="EN-US">(</span>低基期<span lang="EN-US">+</span>低本益比<span lang="EN-US">+</span>低價位<span lang="EN-US">+</span>高殖利率<span lang="EN-US">)</span>都是可以逢低留意的標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。持股請暫時控制在<span lang="EN-US">3</span>成以內即可,手中須持有相對<span lang="EN-US">7</span>成以上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">資金部位,以隨時保持機動性。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-2370785810216423462022-02-28T02:30:00.001+08:002022-02-28T02:30:00.258+08:00~~台股的長多格局”初露賣訊”????.......~~<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">~</span></b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">真心為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">”</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">烏克蘭人民的平安</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">”</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">禱告</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">!!!!~</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> 2022</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">年虎年開始春節剛過就是驚嚇不斷</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">黑天鵝一隻一隻地出現</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:繼武漢肺炎</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">疫情出現新變種</span><span lang="EN-US">Omicorn</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">傳染力超強</span><span lang="EN-US">(PS:</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">因為其死亡率已經明顯降低</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">可望逐漸利空可望慢慢出盡</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">慢慢地解封</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">之後</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,現階段則是屋惡戰爭危機<span lang="EN-US">…..</span>;而筆者認為若是站在長線全球總體政治經濟基本面的觀點而言:<span lang="EN-US">”</span>通膨與未來利率走向<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之趨勢政策才是真正的重中之重。<span lang="EN-US">FED</span>的利率政策才是所謂消息面關注的重點。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">近日爆發的烏俄戰爭,導致短線全球金融市場全面出現大崩跌,油價大漲、萬物齊漲,<span lang="EN-US">”</span>通膨大怪獸<span lang="EN-US">”</span>似乎火上加油地越來越囂張。</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">所以</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">虎年國際金融市場裡的重中之重</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">就是由於通膨情勢迅速轉劣</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">低迷多年的利率將正式回升</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">這才是今年</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">年國際金融市場最大的變數</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">因為</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">國際金融市場自</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">年</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">甚至</span><span lang="EN-US">2000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">年以來迄今長期以來皆處於低利率</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">導致全球游資到處流竄</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">讓相關各種商品與房地產等皆出現投機炒作的泡沫現象早已充斥市場</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">假如因通膨訊號確立</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">勢必導致長期低利率的上揚</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,將是新投資人從未面對與經歷的一個重大考驗。切勿掉以輕心才是。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點則快速向上提升至<span lang="EN-US">18101</span>點。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">亦即台股若無法在<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月、尤其是在<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月底月線收盤指數站上<span lang="EN-US">18101</span>點之前,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來中長多趨勢,可能暫時告一段落,轉而將進入中期波段的時間與空間修正整理。目前警訊已現,<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份的台股多方主力只能前進、不能在後退;否則<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">Q2</span>起,台股將正式進入中期波段之時間與空間之整理修正。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">就形態學之觀點看台股之後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">單純就台股日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之型態學觀點而言:台股由去年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月迄今將近<span lang="EN-US">3</span>個月時間,於<span lang="EN-US">17633~18619</span>點區間震盪整理待變;<span lang="EN-US">(02/24)</span>盤中低點達<span lang="EN-US">17561</span>點、且帶短線大成交量<span lang="EN-US">4336</span>億元、小幅跌破<span lang="EN-US">(01/26)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">17633</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>頸線支撐<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">就形態學觀點而言:台股短線有形成中期<span lang="EN-US">M</span>型頭部的警訊,一旦收盤指數再次跌破<span lang="EN-US">17633</span>點頸線關卡,則<span lang="EN-US">M</span>型頭部之下檔<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>基本測量滿足點為<span lang="EN-US">16647</span>點。反之,若想化解這小型頭部之危機,就必須盡快重新站上<span lang="EN-US">(02/24)</span>巨量長黑日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線<span lang="EN-US">17939</span>點,才是屬於<span lang="EN-US">”</span>破底翻之假空頭騙線<span lang="EN-US">”</span>,重回長多震盪盤堅之趨勢。故在台股短線操作上:在未正式站上<span lang="EN-US">17939</span>點之前,逢反彈逢高,請先行調節減碼為優先,至少提高現金比例至<span lang="EN-US">5</span>成以上。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">另外關於前一<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文:我的個人看法:台股長多目標至少看<span lang="EN-US">22879</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(PS</span>:詳細請參閱:<span lang="EN-US">2022.02.13..(</span>日<span lang="EN-US">)~~</span>台股年後要怎麼處置<span lang="EN-US">(</span>按表操課<span lang="EN-US">+</span>見招拆招<span lang="EN-US">)??http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2770311 )</span>。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">即台股長線</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">本身就具有自己多或空的趨勢力量;惟是否能夠順利及時完成,或是趨勢擴延、縮水夭折等,則須參考視國際歐美盤而定。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">這就是筆者一直強調的</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:<span lang="EN-US">[ </span>台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包<span lang="EN-US">] </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">即明確表示</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:假如投資朋友一時無法判對台股後世之短中長期之趨勢之前,台股仍是建議暫停鎖定<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美股四大指數之漲跌為研判之參考仍不<span style="color: #333333;">改變?</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow; mso-shading: yellow;">結論</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股原長多頭趨勢線已出現警訊;現階段台股短線暫時處於跌深反彈格局。建議逢反彈暫時請先行調節調整持股為優先。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">在選股操作上參考:傳統的<span lang="EN-US">Q1</span>多方題材:台積電相關族群<span lang="EN-US">(</span>節能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>綠能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>儲能<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、通膨相關受益<span lang="EN-US">(</span>金融<span lang="EN-US">+</span>資產等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、股東會<span lang="EN-US">(</span>軋空回補<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、原物料等族群,若是再加上三低一高<span lang="EN-US">(</span>低基期<span lang="EN-US">+</span>低本益比<span lang="EN-US">+</span>低價位<span lang="EN-US">+</span>高殖利率<span lang="EN-US">)</span>都是可以逢低留意的標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。持股請控制在五成以內即可,手中須有相對之</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">資金部位,以隨時保持機動性。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p><br /><p></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-22465636598233870052022-02-13T06:00:00.033+08:002022-02-13T06:00:00.215+08:00~~台股年後要怎麼處置(按表操課+見招拆招)??<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">在此筆者借本專欄向長久以來追蹤筆者對台股去世看法的投資朋友拜個晚年</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">祝大家福虎年新年快樂</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">!!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">虎虎生風</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">!! <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">風生水起</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">!! <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">順風順水</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; mso-highlight: yellow;">!!</span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US"> 2022</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">年一開始</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">全球即出現一大堆嚇人的訊息</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">疫情出現變種</span><span lang="EN-US">Omicorn</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">傳染力超強</span><span lang="EN-US">(PS:</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">所幸死亡率已經大幅降低</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">不排除可望逐漸利空出盡</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">慢慢地解封</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">烏俄戰爭一觸即發</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">中國經濟硬著路</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台海緊張</span><span lang="EN-US">(PS:</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">筆者認為暫時無須緊張</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">等</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">;</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">而其實虎年的重中之重</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">就是由於通膨情勢迅速轉劣</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">低迷多年的利率將正式回升</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">這才是今年</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">年國際金融市場最大的變數</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">因為國際金融市場長期以來的低利率</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">導致全球游資到處流竄</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">、</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">讓商品的投機炒作的泡沫現象早已充斥市場</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">。</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">假如因通膨訊號確立</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">勢必導致長期低利率的上揚</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">股票市場並不怕利空;而是最討厭不確定因素。關於台股金牛年封關前夕,由於今年年假夠久,加上長假前夕里市場裡充斥著烏俄情勢緊張、通膨再起利率看升、疫情依舊危急、塞港依然嚴重、原物料漲價風起、國際金融市場震盪等,無可厚非封關前散戶當然陸續預先調節,拉高現金部位,誠屬正常合理。所以,筆者當下即認為:除非有天大的非經濟性利空衝擊;否則年假過後台股幾乎<span lang="EN-US">9</span>成以上的機率看上漲。<span lang="EN-US">(PS</span>:這就是典型的<span lang="EN-US">"</span>對坐理論<span lang="EN-US">"</span>而已;因為散戶都是先跑光光,主力當然只能暫時先撐著;一旦假期結束之後,就算是有利空出現,因為散戶持股不多,賣壓也是有限。反之,若是假期結束後沒事就是利多,滿手現金的投資人當然會盡快重新進場買進,市場當然易漲難跌<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序已告別<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>金牛年、正式進入<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>福虎年。承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點由台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年 <span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17460</span>點,向上急拉至<span lang="EN-US">18249</span>點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">筆者自詡為<span lang="EN-US">"</span>技術分析之基本教義派<span lang="EN-US">”</span>。在此一樣先不管好多紛紛擾擾的消息面變化還是暫時不以理會,就是單純化還是以<span lang="EN-US">"</span>技術分析<span lang="EN-US">"</span>來看台股後勢之分析研判即可。亦即就波段之中長期而言,台股的趨勢,現階段仍處於多方之控制之中;除非台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月份除非向下大跌至<span lang="EN-US">18249</span>點以下,否則對於台股<span lang="EN-US">2022Q1</span>,市場對於傳統的<span lang="EN-US">Q1</span>多方題材:台積電相關族群<span lang="EN-US">(</span>節能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>綠能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>儲能<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、通膨相關受益<span lang="EN-US">(</span>金融<span lang="EN-US">+</span>資產等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、股東會<span lang="EN-US">+</span>高殖利率、原物料、低位階等族群都是可以逢低留意的標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">我的個人看法:台股長多目標至少看<span lang="EN-US">22879</span>點<span lang="EN-US">~ </span></span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">在一次回覆一下部分投資朋友最關注的問題:台股長線技術面分析<span lang="EN-US">(</span>最初級<span lang="EN-US">+</span>最基本之預估參考<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:台股於<span lang="EN-US">1990</span>年創下<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點後反轉急殺至當年之<span lang="EN-US">2485</span>點 ,共計下殺<span lang="EN-US">10197</span>點。<span lang="EN-US">.</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">在歷時<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年後,在去年<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份越過<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點後,台股終於擺脫<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年的束縛而盤堅屢創新高,迄今已達<span lang="EN-US">18000</span>點。若是以最簡單的<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>計算,台股長多的目標位置為:<span lang="EN-US">12682 + 10197=22879</span>點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, "sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, "sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; text-align: justify;">[</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Arial, "sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; text-align: justify;"> </span><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">對於上述之我對台股長多目標至少應可上看</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">22879</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">;</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">惟仍須特別注意</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">承襲本專欄近年來的</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">PO</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">文皆一再地提醒投資朋友</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:雖然我們擁有全世界最棒的所謂<span lang="EN-US">"</span>護國神山<span lang="EN-US">"</span>台積電;但是,</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台灣只是一個島國</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,在國際金融市場裡面,我們沒有帶領國際多空之大長期趨勢方向的實力。現階段國際長期多空趨勢之大方向,假如投資朋友一時無法判對後世之短中長期之趨勢之前,台股仍是建議暫停鎖定<span lang="EN-US">"</span>美股四大指數之漲跌為研判之參考仍不改變?</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望順應趨勢順勢為之,其實很簡單。就是筆者一直以來即清楚告知:台灣本身並無法創造趨勢;現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等應該是相似度</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">、</span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">撙卻度等超高的分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow; mso-shading: yellow;">結論</span></u></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股中長多頭之趨勢仍不變,而現階段台股短線處境仍有點尷尬。指數漲愈慢愈好,個股之間則可望出現相互比價與輪動之機會。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">在選股操作上參考:傳統的<span lang="EN-US">Q1</span>多方題材:台積電相關族群<span lang="EN-US">(</span>節能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>綠能<span lang="EN-US">+</span>儲能<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、通膨相關受益<span lang="EN-US">(</span>金融<span lang="EN-US">+</span>資產等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、股東會<span lang="EN-US">+</span>高殖利率、原物料、低位階等族群都是可以逢低留意的標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。持股以五成左右即可,手中須有相對之</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">資金部位,以隨時保持機動性。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-79232546208955362172021-12-26T08:00:00.032+08:002021-12-26T08:00:00.213+08:00~~台股長多至少看到2XXX 點 .???...請看內文!~~.<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">國內原本撲朔迷離的四大公投,股票市場最不喜歡的不確定因素,終於在<span lang="EN-US">(12/18)</span>投票結果落幕順利,台股得以擺脫整理、震盪盤堅,且於聖誕節前夕的平安夜當天<span lang="EN-US">(12/24)</span>盤中再創歷史新高指數<span lang="EN-US">18039</span>點,收盤指數<span lang="EN-US">18000</span>點關卡又得而復失,收盤指數<span lang="EN-US">117961</span>點。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股時序即將進入國際金融市場最期待的東西方國家之年底耶誕節與元月效應以及東方農曆春節等偏多做多時刻。<span lang="EN-US"> </span>元宇宙、電動車、綠能節能儲能、高殖利率股、通膨<span lang="EN-US">(</span>升息<span lang="EN-US">)</span>等重大中長期題材。筆者亦認為上述題材應可跨年度至<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">Q1</span>皆能適用之。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">但請投資朋友多冷靜以對,筆者仍暫時不理會消息面變化;單純以<span lang="EN-US">”</span>純粹之技術分析<span lang="EN-US">”</span>的觀點說明筆者對台股現階段與預估的後市行情發展提出看法以供參考。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序即將告別<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>金牛年、進入<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份,承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點由台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US"> 12</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17851</span>點,持續向下調整為<span lang="EN-US">17460</span>點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">意即台股<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份除非意外失控向下大跌至<span lang="EN-US">17460</span>點以下,否則對於市場眾所期待的<span lang="EN-US">”</span>元月效應<span lang="EN-US">"</span>應該是絕對可以期待與把握的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">現階段對於即將進入的<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>金虎年元月份之國際金融市場的東西方國家傳統上最最期待之年底耶誕節與元月效應以及東方農曆春節等持續偏多做多的好時光。<span lang="EN-US"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> [ </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">我的個人看法:台股長多目標至少看<span lang="EN-US">22879</span>點<span lang="EN-US">~ </span></span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 台股長線技術面分析<span lang="EN-US">(</span>最初級<span lang="EN-US">+</span>最基本之預估參考<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:台股於<span lang="EN-US">1990</span>年創下<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點後反轉急殺至當年之<span lang="EN-US">2485</span>點 ,共計下殺<span lang="EN-US">10197</span>點。<span lang="EN-US">.</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">在歷時<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年後,在去年<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份越過<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點後,台股終於擺脫<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年的束縛而盤堅屢創新高,迄今已達<span lang="EN-US">18000</span>點。若是以最簡單的<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>計算,台股長多的目標位置為:<span lang="EN-US">12682 + 10197=22879</span>點。所以,台灣先生所說的台股<span lang="EN-US">20000</span>點出脫股票,其實並沒有錯才是。別亂笑人家喔<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">分享我的經驗個人觀點之二<span lang="EN-US"> ]</span>:<span lang="EN-US">(Part</span>二<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">承襲筆者個人在前一<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文中所提:在<span lang="EN-US">[ </span>分享我的經驗個人觀點之一<span lang="EN-US"> ]</span>中所提及的<span lang="EN-US">..~~</span>別再說<span lang="EN-US">"</span>外資認錯回補”了<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>顛覆市場與媒體長久以來的<span lang="EN-US">”</span>制式錯誤觀點<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之後,本次<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文繼續提出<span lang="EN-US">[ </span>分享我的經驗個人觀點之 <span lang="EN-US">Part</span>二
<span lang="EN-US"> ]</span>與投資朋友分享之</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">要搞清楚</span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">"</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">政治絕對高於一切<span lang="EN-US">”</span></span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">,政治的威力與影響力絕對高於經濟、體育、外交等所有事務。經常在電視媒體聽到:政治不干涉經濟、體育、外交等等,都是騙人的鬼話,事實都剛好相反。這不涉及<span lang="EN-US">"</span>意識形態<span lang="EN-US">”</span>,長期觀察就可以知道,時間可以證明一切。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">請投資朋友先冷靜,聽筆者仔細說明:筆者操作國際期貨與台股迄今已有<span lang="EN-US">35</span>年之久,若先行撇除<span lang="EN-US">"</span>技術分析<span lang="EN-US">"</span>的觀點;這期間台股與全球國際金融股匯市的多空震盪漲跌起伏。以事後諸葛而言:台灣是一個以外銷為主的島國經濟,皆以當下環境的<span lang="EN-US">"</span>政治的鬆緊、或是封閉與開放<span lang="EN-US">"</span>,與股匯市的多空趨勢幾乎都是與當時國際上當紅的經濟體同步起伏。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">以台股為例說明如下:長期多空的大行情過程中,經驗告訴筆者<span lang="EN-US">100%</span>與當下所處的<span lang="EN-US">”</span>國際與國內之政治環境與氛圍<span lang="EN-US">”</span>所控制。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(1)..</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">日本的金融資產泡沫</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:台灣<span lang="EN-US">1987</span>年解嚴民主化前夕,台股即領先突破歷時<span lang="EN-US">25</span>年在<span lang="EN-US">1000</span>點關卡以下的大整理型態,加上被壓抑已久龐大的資金狂潮釋出,並由當時最當紅的日本所帶動的金融與資產的瘋狂炒作。台股指數亦由<span lang="EN-US">1000</span>點直奔<span lang="EN-US">1990</span>年初的<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點後,隨著日經指數由<span lang="EN-US">38957</span>點的高峰因泡沫的破滅而同步出現崩盤大跌的修正。<span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">階段性之指標族群為:金融<span lang="EN-US">+</span>資產類股。</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(2)..</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">美國網路泡沫</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:台股在<span lang="EN-US">1990</span>年代隨著日本金融資產泡沫大跌修正後,隨著以美國為首之高科技電腦<span lang="EN-US">PC</span>普及與網路興起,於<span lang="EN-US">2000</span>年重返萬點後;再次因為網路泡沫破滅而大跌修正。<span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">階段性之指標族群為:電子半導體<span lang="EN-US">+</span>硬體股。</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(3)..</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">中國<span lang="EN-US">(</span>世界工廠<span lang="EN-US">)</span>崛起</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:<span lang="EN-US">21</span>世紀初繼美國網路泡沫後,所幸有<span lang="EN-US">"</span>世界工廠<span lang="EN-US">"</span>之稱的中國因有廉價的土地與龐大的人口紅利而全面崛起,同文同種的台灣企業家紛紛西進而得利,直到<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年北京奧運達到相對高峰後,因爆發<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>美國金融海嘯後而進行大修正。<span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">階段性之指標族群為:中概傳產股<span lang="EN-US">+</span>中概電子股,如<span lang="EN-US">2317</span>鴻海等</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">須留意在狂奔<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年的中國經濟,近年因習近平的藉打貪與擴軍等保守收縮措施,導致過度炒作上漲的經濟與房地產等之泡沫陸續出現大修正。再加上以美國為首之西方國家<span lang="EN-US">+</span>亞洲的日本<span lang="EN-US">+</span>印度等之<span lang="EN-US">"</span>圍中政策<span lang="EN-US">"</span>未緩和之前。相關的中國股市與港股等明顯呈現相對全球而言的弱勢反映,危城不居、危城不入,在趨勢未轉正之前,先行保持觀望即可。<span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">階段性之指標族群為:中概股。暫時不宜介入</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(4)..</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">蘋果收機風潮<span lang="EN-US">+</span>電動車興起</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>金融海嘯重創全球股市,美國<span lang="EN-US">FED</span>等相繼大印鈔<span lang="EN-US">QE</span>救市,球球資金狂潮藉著蘋果手機與進來的<span lang="EN-US">Tesla</span>電動車<span lang="EN-US">+</span>元宇宙等殺手級題材大炒作。這期間台股所幸甩開中國而轉向親美,台北股市當然隨著美股而屢創新高迄今已達<span lang="EN-US">18000</span>點之譜。未來會長到何處<span lang="EN-US">??</span>一鶴和時節素這波長多大行情<span lang="EN-US">??</span>當然就端視這次帶頭的美國美股能長到何處定囉<span lang="EN-US">!</span>筆者認為:若是<span lang="EN-US">"</span>通膨<span lang="EN-US">"</span>無法及時控制的話,</span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">FED</span></u></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">明年<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年何時<span lang="EN-US">"</span>升息<span lang="EN-US">"</span>將是這波大多頭終結的重要的關鍵時刻<span lang="EN-US">!!(</span>台股多多技術面的終結目標位置<span lang="EN-US">??</span>請看筆者的最初級分析<span lang="EN-US">!!)</span></span></u></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股現階段處於長期相對高檔區,惟長多趨勢並未改變。指數漲愈慢愈好,個股之間可望有相當好的表現機會;惟投機炒作明顯、開始出現群魔亂舞之徵兆,故選股需更謹慎、盡量不要過度追高。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">個股務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點,請嚴守紀律而為。持股以五成即可,手中</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">資金隨時保持機動性</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p><br /><p></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-16430531647514583192021-11-28T07:00:00.001+08:002021-11-28T07:00:00.197+08:00~~台股12月份操作為何"難度高"??<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">時序即將進入國際金融市場最期待的東西方國家之年底耶誕節與元月效應以及東方農曆春節等偏多做多時刻。<span lang="EN-US"> <u style="text-underline: thick;"> </u></span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">近日來大家應都很清楚:台股的多空題材主要為:元宇宙、電動車、綠能節能儲能以及通膨<span lang="EN-US">(</span>升息<span lang="EN-US">)</span>等重大中長期題材。筆者亦認為上述題材應可跨年度至<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年皆能適用之。只是股票在漲多的時候,須注意都會有波段的時間與空間的修正或是<span lang="EN-US">'</span>整理。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">但請投資朋友多冷靜以對,筆者仍暫時不理會消息面變化;單純以<span lang="EN-US">”</span>純粹之技術分析<span lang="EN-US">”</span>的觀點說明筆者對台股現階段與預估的後市行情發展提出看法以供參考。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> </span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序即將正式進入<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份,承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,<span lang="EN-US">(</span>令筆者深感驚訝的是:台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點由台股<span lang="EN-US"> 11</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">18040</span>點,向下調整為<span lang="EN-US">17851</span>點。意即台股<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份行情至少需要站上<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17851</span>點,尤其是台股<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之收盤指數位置一定要高於<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17851</span>點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> 惟</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">誠如上述所言:台股自<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>創下之新歷史高點<span lang="EN-US">18054</span>點後,對於將近已經超過五個多月之中期波段整理行情,才有告一段落;台股多頭才有重新正式啟動另一中期波段向上攻擊且過高的波段上漲行情。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">反之,若是至<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份的最後一個交易日仍遲遲未站上<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17851</span>點,則表示台股自<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>高點<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點以來之中段整理尚未結束,指數則仍隨時具有拉回探底之可能。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">截至本文發稿時間<span lang="EN-US">(11/26)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span>時台股收盤指數位置為<span lang="EN-US">17369</span>點,技術面顯示:台股短中線仍處於時間與空間的修正整理中。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">分享我的經驗個人觀點之一</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(1)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">別再說<span lang="EN-US">"</span>外資認錯回補<span lang="EN-US">”</span>了:常在電視媒體聽到:外資認錯如何如何<span lang="EN-US">??</span>須知外在進入台股迄今將近<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年,短線或許會有小小的失手;惟若是時間拉長、以中長期波段的觀察:在台股的外資就是標標準準的<span lang="EN-US">"</span>超級大贏家<span lang="EN-US">'</span>無誤。須知:外資除了對台股之現股買賣進出之外,更有超級大的口袋深度的現金部位,更可搭配期貨、<span lang="EN-US">(</span>台股指數與個股<span lang="EN-US">)</span>選擇權等,各種不同組合方式來避險保護操作、甚至況大操作上的獲利。所以,電視媒體上常常聽到專業財經媒體時常報導<span lang="EN-US">"</span>外資認錯回補等等<span lang="EN-US">??"</span>就會覺得很好笑、也很可悲。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">筆者認為全球所有金融市場裡,<span lang="EN-US">90%</span>以上、甚至更高的散戶都會是輸家;贏家就是那些錢多、第一手資訊在手的大戶、或是大股東,以前如此、現在如此、未來也一樣會是如此。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">雖然,筆者一直以來都確信:台灣的散戶是全世界最用功、也是最厲害的散戶;惟可惜在怎麼厲害<span lang="EN-US">90%</span>以上仍是難逃賠錢、甚至大賠輸光的宿命;沒辦法再厲害都一樣改變不了,金融市場裡<span lang="EN-US">"</span>贏家永遠是少數<span lang="EN-US">"</span>的結果。所以,媒體所說的資訊聽聽就好、不聽更好。至少不要盡信、被牽著鼻子走才是保命之道。<span lang="EN-US">~</span>小心才可以駛得萬年船<span lang="EN-US">~</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(2)..</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">以號稱<span lang="EN-US">"</span>台灣護國神山<span lang="EN-US">"</span>的<span lang="EN-US">2330</span>台積電為例:近來常聽到地<span lang="EN-US">4</span>台財經媒體說外資操作賣低買高、操作賠錢等等。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">筆者聽後都覺得很好笑,<span lang="EN-US">2330</span>台積電是台股的市值王,其實外資持股將近八成,雖名叫台灣積體電路公司;但在筆者的眼睛裡, <span lang="EN-US">"</span>台灣護國神山<span lang="EN-US">"</span>的<span lang="EN-US">2330</span>台積電其實應該是典型的外國人公司了。更厲害的是若市以外資長期以來的投資成本,經過不斷的除權息等,整體外資的持有成本都在百元以下、甚至更低更低。或許投資朋友不相信,但是事實的確是如此,所以若是外資真的想賣的話,<span lang="EN-US">600</span>元、<span lang="EN-US">500</span>元、<span lang="EN-US">400</span>元、<span lang="EN-US">300</span>元、<span lang="EN-US">200</span>元、甚至<span lang="EN-US">100</span>元以下,都算獲利出場。所以,還是保持冷靜、遵守紀律、按表操課即可。不必放太多的感情因素影響操作的紀律柴市。再說一次:<span lang="EN-US">~</span>小心才可以駛得萬年船<span lang="EN-US">~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股現階段仍處於自<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>創下之新歷史高點<span lang="EN-US">18054</span>點後之中期波段整理中尚未改變;頂多暫時僅以<span lang="EN-US">3~5</span>成資金部位謹慎操作即可,隨時保持機動性。請持股請務必設好停</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">~~</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-51187503953687101192021-10-31T06:00:00.026+08:002021-10-31T06:00:00.213+08:00~~台股11月份:多頭的任務為:不能跌!最好是?? ~~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>
<u style="text-underline: thick;"> </u></span></b><b><u style="text-underline: thick;"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">以下為筆者之前四篇個人的每月分析文章,請新讀者可以參閱參考</span></u></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月多方下檔<span lang="EN-US">17180</span>點不失守即可;否則須提防中期波段以上之修正<span lang="EN-US">!!http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2753821</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月”只有向上攻擊;否則不攻就跌”<span lang="EN-US">!! </span>原因<span lang="EN-US">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2756243 </span>仔細思考台股走勢將如何<span lang="EN-US">??</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月走勢大膽地超前預言<span lang="EN-US">(</span>先上在下<span lang="EN-US">)???~~</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2759185</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股光輝<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份首重<span lang="EN-US">???!!!~~</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2761476</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序已正式進入<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月份,承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後<span lang="EN-US">(</span>令筆者深感驚訝的是:台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點與<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點都幾乎相同,都是<span lang="EN-US">18040</span>點。這次乃是筆者統計台股每個月分之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點,超過<span lang="EN-US">10</span>年以上首次遇到的怪異巧合景象。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">而到底台股之中期波段之後市行情為何<span lang="EN-US">??</span>筆者個人以<span lang="EN-US">”</span>正統之量價技術分析<span lang="EN-US">”</span>說明如下,讓各位投資朋友參考<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(1)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">18040</span>點,高於台股於今年<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>創下之歷史高點<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點。代表台股由<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之歷史高點<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點以來之波段中期修正整理的行情尚未完成、仍在持續中。所以,台股指數在<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月份之波段格局若是想由空翻多,除非要攻過<span lang="EN-US">10840</span>點以上才算數;而且是<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月之收盤指數需站上<span lang="EN-US">18040</span>點之上。這是關於<span lang="EN-US">”</span>價<span lang="EN-US">”</span>的部分<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(2)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">接下來要說明的部分是:現階段台股<span lang="EN-US">”</span>成交量<span lang="EN-US">”</span>的部分。目前台股之新當日成交天量為<span lang="EN-US">6563</span>億元,月均量達<span lang="EN-US">5500</span>億元以上,之雙歷史最大成交量數據;兩個交易日之後見到台股新歷史高點<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點新天價<span lang="EN-US">(</span>符合典型制式傳統量先價而行的分析概念<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">而現階段台股之當日成交量僅剩約<span lang="EN-US">3000</span>億元左右<span lang="EN-US">+</span>月成交均量約<span lang="EN-US">2800~2900</span>億元。雙雙皆遠低於上述之成交量能水準;所以,若是台股指數於<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月價格部份能作價衝過高點<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點之上;而在政府主管機關在<span lang="EN-US">"</span>新當沖警示制度<span lang="EN-US">"</span>的實施以來,台股之成交量能部分,已明確出現降溫萎縮;故在相對上<span lang="EN-US">”</span>成交量<span lang="EN-US">”</span>部分未能領先、或是至少亦須同步創新高量的話;則將會形成更大規模的<span lang="EN-US">"</span>高檔量價背離<span lang="EN-US">"</span>與<span lang="EN-US">"</span>高檔假突破之多頭騙線的假突破<span lang="EN-US">"</span>等危險訊號,反而會造成日後更危險之更大級數的拉回修正整理警訊。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">(3)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">綜合上述<span lang="EN-US">(1)+(2)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">"</span>價量分析<span lang="EN-US">"</span>而言:筆者之結論如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月迄今中期波段趨勢上暫時仍處於整理待變中,所以就算是漲不上去的話,至少也不宜大跌。否則台股的整理時間將會再延長。所以筆者認為<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月份的台股至少要<span lang="EN-US">"</span>托住<span lang="EN-US">"</span>,托住指數,用時間來換取空間,這樣才會有利於<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月西方歐美的聖誕節新年行情<span lang="EN-US">+</span>新年度<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年之<span lang="EN-US">"</span>元月效應<span lang="EN-US">"</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> ] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">台股<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月份現階段仍處於中期波段整理中尚未改變;只要指數部分部出現大跌,就持續會以題材面<span lang="EN-US">+</span>業績面,由類股與個股輪動表現。其中須是類股與個股之相對位階為逢低布局與逢高調節<span lang="EN-US">(</span>買黑賣紅<span lang="EN-US">)</span>之操作為主</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">現金部位提高至<span lang="EN-US">5~7</span>成以上,手中持股建議<span lang="EN-US">5</span>成以內<span lang="EN-US">+</span>隨時保持機動性。請持股請務必設好停</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, "serif";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-33661519355651808972021-10-03T05:00:00.035+08:002021-10-03T05:00:00.196+08:00~~台股光輝10月份首重逢彈減碼!!!~~<p><b><span lang="EN-US">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: yellow;">前言</span><span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></b></p><p><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">大家都知道筆者退休之前</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">將近</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">年的國內證券期貨與投顧等職場經歷</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">一直以來完全都是以”技術分析之基本教義派”自居,量價關係的正確解讀</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">絕對會領先告訴我們未來的發展。因為若是</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">技術分析</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">無領先反應的特性的話</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">,就沒啥存在的價值了;但是筆者更確信,金融市場裡永遠有一批人永遠不相信<span lang="EN-US">”</span>技術分析的領先反應的特色與功能<span lang="EN-US">”</span>。就像現今的武漢肺炎之注射疫苗與否,永遠都會有一批人絕對不打疫苗一樣<span lang="EN-US">(</span>我們是民主自由國家部會強迫人民做任何事<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></p><p><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">分析研判與操作行情是絕對有依據與延續性的</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">看對或是看錯都很正常</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">;看對的時候就堅持下去;看錯的時候就須訂好停損機制;只要能夠保持長期賺多賠少,就會為贏家了。國際金融市場行情大漲大跌的大行情,每年、甚至每隔幾年總會出現,如何能提前領先出現訊號<span lang="EN-US">?</span>筆者長期以來的經驗得知:認為就是<span lang="EN-US">”</span>技術分析<span lang="EN-US">”</span>非常值得參考。須知每一次超級的大多頭,或是大修正行情,總是會很自然地持續的循環出現。就跟日出日落,潮來潮去的一般自然。惟散戶長期下來為什麼還是都是輸家居多呢<span lang="EN-US">?</span>答案很簡單:漲跌的內涵都一樣,但是藉口包裝的理由,永遠都會不一樣的。</span></p><p><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">散戶對於大多頭與大空頭行情的行情,媒體在<span lang="EN-US">”</span>事後<span lang="EN-US">”</span>肯定會替我們找一大堆的原因與藉口,這一點散戶朋友們完全不用擔心沒理由的。問題就在出在<span lang="EN-US">"</span>事後才知道<span lang="EN-US">”</span>這有啥用呢;要事前提前出現訊號,還是需要正統的<span lang="EN-US">"</span>量價技術分析<span lang="EN-US">"</span>這項工具來幫忙。當然,請大家要花時間好好地學習,<span lang="EN-US">"</span>天下絕對沒有白吃的午餐<span lang="EN-US">"</span>,想要長期獲利,必須也要努力學習一種以上,可以倚靠的工具與方法。<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>小心駛得萬年船<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>共勉之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">誠如筆者所言,筆者認為研判分析對錯是一回事;惟絕對必須要有連貫性。分析行情對錯皆屬正常,切忌忽多又忽空。看對了就堅持下去,若是看錯了就設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點退出。筆者強調分析絕對要有連續性,否則乎多乎空的分析文章,千萬別浪費時間看了。不是嗎<span lang="EN-US">?</span>以下前三篇個人的每月分析文章,請新讀者可以參閱參考。</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月多方下檔<span lang="EN-US">17180</span>點不失守即可;否則須提防中期波段以上之修正<span lang="EN-US">!!http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2753821</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">~~</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月”只有向上攻擊;否則不攻就跌”<span lang="EN-US">!! </span>原因<span lang="EN-US">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2756243<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span>仔細思考台股走勢將如何<span lang="EN-US">??<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">~~</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月走勢大膽地超前預言<span lang="EN-US">(</span>先上在下<span lang="EN-US">)???~~<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2759185</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">
</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">按照慣例直接進入主題,現階段台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序已正式進入<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份<span lang="EN-US">(</span>光輝十月<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,承襲筆者本專欄<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後<span lang="EN-US">(</span>令筆者深感意外的<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點由<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份的<span lang="EN-US">17715</span>點大幅向上提高<span lang="EN-US">325</span>點達<span lang="EN-US">18040</span>點。這位置就是需要越過迄今台股於今年<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點的歷史高點,而且須過高<span lang="EN-US">+</span>站上;這真的<span lang="EN-US">"</span>有一大點的困難吧<span lang="EN-US">?</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">台股<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份<span lang="EN-US">(08/31)</span>之月收盤位置為<span lang="EN-US">17490</span>點,低於台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17677</span>點<span lang="EN-US">(</span>詳請參閱 <span lang="EN-US">~~</span>台股<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月”只有向上攻擊;否則不攻就跌”<span lang="EN-US">!! </span>原因<span lang="EN-US">.....http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2756243) </span>。所以,純以技術面領先反應的特性而言,台股從去年<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">8523</span>點以來共計<span lang="EN-US">16</span>個月之久的中長期波段多頭上漲趨勢應已暫時告一段落,意即其實台股由今年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月起就已經正式進入中長期波段之時間與空間的修正整理。只是當下市場仍是一片樂觀,台股市場幾乎天天大量滾滾、沖沖樂,甚麼<span lang="EN-US">"</span>航海王、鋼鐵人<span lang="EN-US">"</span>等,如今才兩個月不到就已經有一大堆人套在裡面了。現階對操作的困難度與風險度皆會明顯提高,盡量別在漲幅已漲高之個股過度追價,需嚴格設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點、且控制好資金部位、以策安全。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">結論</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">:台股<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份未站上當月之月線之長線<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月分界點<span lang="EN-US">18040</span>點之前,”光輝的十月”台股仍將會面對較大之修正風險。短線多頭必須帶大量能向上攻擊,否則須提防不進則退。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">量價與型態之技術分析看台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">(1)..</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">分時極短線台股小時分時<span lang="EN-US">+</span>日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線:台股於<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點達<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點創歷史高點後,反向往下拉回至<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點,拉回修正共計<span lang="EN-US">1141</span>點。隨後反彈至<span lang="EN-US">(08/05)</span>之高點<span lang="EN-US">17643</span>點,且跌破前低<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點,即可計算出基本<span lang="EN-US">1</span>:<span lang="EN-US">1</span>之同等跌幅滿足點位置<span lang="EN-US">16502</span>點。<span lang="EN-US">(10/01)</span>知盤中低點<span lang="EN-US">16503</span>點幾乎一點不差<span lang="EN-US">(</span>巧合吧<span lang="EN-US">!!??)</span>,短線台股隨時可以跌深反彈契機可期。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">(2)..</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">台股於<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點達<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點創歷史高點前後,日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線圖於<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月迄<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月形成約<span lang="EN-US">3</span>個月之頭部型態,短線兩個低點<span lang="EN-US">(05/17)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">15159</span>點<span lang="EN-US">+(08/20)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">16248</span>點相連之連線位置目前約為<span lang="EN-US">16750</span>點,短線暫時小幅跌破,<span lang="EN-US">(10/01)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span>收盤位置為<span lang="EN-US">16570</span>點,可望有短線跌深後之反彈可期。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">現階段台股內部結構</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">
]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">現階對台股之盤面強勢股結構區分如下;傳產<span lang="EN-US">(</span>塑化、航運、鋼鐵、紡織等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、電子、金融等三分天下。其中:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">航運股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">:原強勢指標貨櫃三雄皆出現漲多後腰斬修正暫時須時間整理;預估整理過後,<span lang="EN-US"> </span>預期市場主力極可能將換由漲幅較小與籌碼較安定之散裝航運股領軍,帶動順勢拉高貨櫃三雄藉機出貨。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">鋼鐵股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">:以受惠美國基礎建設與不鏽鋼等特殊合金之個股,如<span lang="EN-US">2027</span>大成鋼、<span lang="EN-US">8415</span>大國鋼、<span lang="EN-US">2031</span>新光鋼、<span lang="EN-US">2358</span>廷鑫等個股逢低介入應仍有可為。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">電子股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">:電動車與新能源等相關長多供應鏈之相關題材個股,列為觀察之標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> ] </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">台股中期波段趨勢已轉弱中;惟短線可望有跌深反彈之機會;暫時不殺低,利用反彈時減碼,至少須將現金部位提高至<span lang="EN-US">5~7</span>成以上,手中持股隨時保持機動性。請持股請務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>所有之多<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是空<span lang="EN-US">)</span>方操作內容,均需設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行<span lang="EN-US">~~</span></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-51765009937530486862021-09-05T08:00:00.055+08:002021-09-05T08:00:00.276+08:00~~台股9月走勢大膽地超前預言(先上在下)???~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">承襲筆者之前一<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文:<span lang="EN-US">~~</span>台股<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月”只有向上攻擊;否則不攻就跌”<span lang="EN-US">!! </span>原因是……<span lang="EN-US">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2756243 </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">仔細思考台股走勢將如何</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">??</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">照慣例直接進入主題,現階段之台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序已正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點由</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份的</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17677</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點小幅向上提高</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">38</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17715</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月份</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(08/31)</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">之月收盤位置為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">17490</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">低於台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月份之月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">17677</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,純以技術面領先反應的特性而言,台股再從去年<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">8523</span>點以來共計<span lang="EN-US">16</span>個月之久的中長期波段多頭上漲趨勢可能暫時告一段落,意即在台股<span lang="EN-US">8~10</span>月期間可能需要進入時間與空間的修正整理。這期間操作的困難度與風險度皆會明顯提高,盡量別在漲幅已漲高之個股過度追價,需嚴格設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點、且控制好資金部位、以策安全。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">反之,<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份起若是想化解掉<span lang="EN-US">8~10</span>月份之修正整理危機的話,唯一任務就是盡快克服站上台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17715</span>點;尤其是在<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月底<span lang="EN-US">(09/30)</span>收月線時指數部分務必站上台股<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17715</span>點之上,才可以化解台股中期修正的危機;否則台股在<span lang="EN-US">”</span>光輝的十月<span lang="EN-US">”</span>裡就會面對較大之修正風險。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股指數</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17490</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17715</span>點。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股將盡快攻過</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17715</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">否則台股之長多格局將可能會受到挑戰與動搖之危訊</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;故在</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">操作上與選股上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,必須提高風險為優先。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">對於漲幅過大者就不追高</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">資金則可留意甫於低檔放亮起漲之個股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">量價與型態之技術分析看台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股指數</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17490</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17715</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。台股長多格局將可能會受到挑戰與動搖之危訊;故在操作上與選股上,必須提高風險為優先。對於漲幅過大者就不追高;資金則可留意甫於低檔放亮起漲之個股。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">分析行情對錯皆屬正常,切忌忽多又忽空。看對了就堅持下去,若是看錯了就設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點退出。筆者強調分析絕對要有連續性,為何台股在</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份會出現先上在下,又在強力反彈的技術面原因</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(PS</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:詳請參閱</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">
~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月”只有向上攻擊;否則不攻就跌”</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">!! </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">原因</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2756243">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2756243</a>)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">幸好現階段台股在極短線之分時上線型之型態上出現一個相當不錯的多方契機</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,短線後市</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">可能會出現相當刺激有趣的發展喔</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">詳請細看筆者以下之說明</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">台股現階段分時極短線台股小時分時<span lang="EN-US">+</span>日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線型態為:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(1)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股於<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點達<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點創歷史高點後,反向往下拉回至<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點,拉回修正共計<span lang="EN-US">1141</span>點。隨後反彈至<span lang="EN-US">(08/05)</span>之高點<span lang="EN-US">17643</span>點,且跌破前低<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點,即可計算出基本<span lang="EN-US">1</span>:<span lang="EN-US">1</span>之同等跌幅滿足點位置<span lang="EN-US">16502</span>點</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(2)..</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股於<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點達<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點創歷史高點後,日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線圖於<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月迄<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月形成約<span lang="EN-US">3</span>個月之小型頭肩頂型態,頸線關卡位置為<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點,<span lang="EN-US">(08/13)</span>跌破頸線<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點之後<span lang="EN-US">(PS</span>:<span lang="EN-US">18034-16893=1141</span>點,<span lang="EN-US">16893-1141=15752</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,下檔的<span lang="EN-US">1</span>:<span lang="EN-US">1</span>之同等基本跌幅之測量滿足點位置<span lang="EN-US">15752</span>點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(3)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股本波短線低點暫時出現在<span lang="EN-US">(08/20)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16248</span>點。符合上述<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>與<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>條件所計算出來之低點參考<span lang="EN-US">15752~16502</span>點之間。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股指數於<span lang="EN-US">(08/20)</span>之低點<span lang="EN-US">16248</span>點止跌反彈之後,隨即很快就重新站上<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點之頸線壓力關卡,同時更突破穿越短線<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點與<span lang="EN-US">(08/05)</span>之高點<span lang="EN-US">17643</span>點,兩點相連之短期下降壓力線;一舉化解小型頭肩頂壓力,此舉就技術面而言,可以視之為<span lang="EN-US">”</span>短線破底翻<span lang="EN-US">"</span>之轉強訊號。上檔初步目標為挑戰前高,<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點達<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點歷史高點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(4)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">筆者在此預先提醒各位讀者;假如不久之後再指數挑戰,甚至越過前<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點達<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點歷史高點之際,反而需要留意對映下檔的”短線破底翻<span lang="EN-US">"</span>之轉強訊號;在<span lang="EN-US">”</span>警示新制<span lang="EN-US">”</span>推出之後大戶來不及出貨之後,主力只好反向拉高騙線,營造好氣氛過高、做出<span lang="EN-US">”</span>高檔假突破<span lang="EN-US">"</span>之賣出訊號。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">由於<span lang="EN-US">”</span>新版警示制度<span lang="EN-US">”</span>已正式實施,當沖的主力大戶與散戶似乎尚未適應,故短期內不易出現新大成交量,所以當再次衝高時,容易造成量價背離之現象,形成再一次的多頭騙線而拉回整理。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段台股內部結構</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階對台股之盤面強勢股結構區分如下</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;傳產<span lang="EN-US">(</span>航運、鋼鐵等<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、電子、金融<span lang="EN-US">(</span>等三分天下。其中:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">航運股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:原強勢指標貨櫃三雄皆出現漲多後腰斬修正暫時須時間整理;預估整理過後,整體運輸類股將有再拉高之機會。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">惟預期市場主力極可能將換由漲幅較小與籌碼較安定之散裝航運股領軍,帶動順勢拉高貨櫃三雄藉機出貨。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">鋼鐵股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:建議還是以受惠美國基礎建設與不鏽鋼等特殊合金之個股,如<span lang="EN-US">2027</span>大成鋼、<span lang="EN-US">8415</span>大國鋼、<span lang="EN-US">2031</span>新光鋼等個股逢低介入應仍有可為。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">電子股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:長多之電動車相關供應鏈之相關題材個股,為優先逢低布局之標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">落後指標</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">金融</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">+</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">證券等類股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">一旦全面同步轉強</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">指數卻是量大不漲時</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,將是波段漲勢之尾聲提醒,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">應可視為短線另一次之退出訊號</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之操作整理如下:因為台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月線多空分界點位置則已拉高至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17715</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。故操作上筆者建議</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(1)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">在</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">未站上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17715</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之前</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,保守<span lang="EN-US">3</span>成以內或是觀望就好。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(2)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若是站上<span lang="EN-US">17677</span>點之後,<span lang="EN-US">5~7</span>成資金,擇優擇強操作。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(3)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若是一旦越過<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點歷史高點後,就須有隨時有出清持股之心理準備。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段預期短期台股有再次挑戰新高脂機會,故持續震盪逢低偏多操作手中持股隨時保持機動性。持股請務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-17359460513724856752021-08-01T07:00:00.001+08:002021-08-01T07:00:00.235+08:00~~台股8月”只有向上攻擊;否則不攻就跌”!! 原因是……~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(07/29)(</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">五<span lang="EN-US">)</span>台股收日線周線月線,收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">17247</span>點。請投資人看一下前一本專欄所指出之<span lang="EN-US">”</span>台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份之月線常欠多空分界點位置為<span lang="EN-US">17180</span>點<span lang="EN-US">”</span>,即可看出今年以來一路震盪創高的台股與歐美國際股市等,似已陸續漲高之後,皆同時遇到多多之獲利調節與回吐之現象;台股於<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>之回檔低點<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點,跌破<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份之月線多空空分界點<span lang="EN-US">17180</span>點,所幸於<span lang="EN-US">(07/30)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span>月線收盤指數拉上<span lang="EN-US">17247</span>點。意即台股迄底<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月底,短線雖一度破縣、險些晚節不保;惟長多趨勢仍不變。但是即將而來的<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份,肯定將面臨更大的考驗。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">照慣例直接進入主題,現階段之台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序已正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點由</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份的</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16125</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點快速地向上拉高</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">497</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17677</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">意即台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份裡指數皆不適宜低於</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17677</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點以下</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">表示</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:<span lang="EN-US">(07/29)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span>台股收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">17247</span>點,距離<span lang="EN-US">17677</span>點差距達<span lang="EN-US">430</span>點。故短線在<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份裡,若是無法盡快急漲站上<span lang="EN-US">17677</span>點之上,則須提防短中期上檔之空方套牢壓力的向下反撲力量攻擊。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股的<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份將是本專欄自去年<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月連續<span lang="EN-US">14</span>個月波段趨勢翻多以來,首度出現疑似可能的<span lang="EN-US">”</span>由多翻空<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之轉折訊號<span lang="EN-US">?? </span>現階段台股自<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份的第一個交易日起,即首度出現低於當月份之長線多空分界點現象。故筆者才會在標題直接說出<span lang="EN-US">"8</span>月份台股<span lang="EN-US">”</span>只能攻擊、不能後退<span lang="EN-US">”</span>當成本月份操作之結論。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股指數</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份必須務必站上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17677</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;否</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">則台股長多格局將可能會受到挑戰與動搖之危訊</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;故在</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">操作上與選股上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,必須提高風險為優先。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">對於漲幅過大者就不追高</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">資金則可留意甫於低檔放亮起漲之個股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">量價技術分析看台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">承襲本專欄前一</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文中所言</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:現階短分時極短線台股日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線型態上,於<span lang="EN-US">(07/15)</span>之高點達<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點創歷史高點後,即反向往下跌破前低<span lang="EN-US">(07/09)</span>低點<span lang="EN-US">17867</span>點頸線關卡;技術面形成疑似<span lang="EN-US">”</span>小假突破<span lang="EN-US">+</span>真拉回<span lang="EN-US">"</span>之危險訊號。即<span lang="EN-US">18034</span>點<span lang="EN-US">~17867</span>點頸線關卡,極短線跌破小型頭部之<span lang="EN-US">17867</span>點頸線關卡後,下檔之最基本<span lang="EN-US">1:1</span>測幅位置為<span lang="EN-US">17160</span>點;故<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>盤中低點即殺至<span lang="EN-US">16893</span>點,極短線出現有點恐慌後技術性反彈合理。暫時先以<span lang="EN-US">”</span>技術性之跌深反彈<span lang="EN-US">”</span>視之即可。<span lang="EN-US"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">短線反彈若是無法站上<span lang="EN-US">17867</span>點頸線關卡<span lang="EN-US">3</span>天以上之前,請先行減碼,持股控制在<span lang="EN-US">3</span>成以內。待站上<span lang="EN-US">17867</span>點頸線關卡之後,可擇強持股<span lang="EN-US">5~7</span>成應對。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段台股內部結構</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階對台股之盤面強勢股結構區分如下</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;航運、鋼鐵、電子等三分天下。其中:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">航運股:原強勢指標貨櫃三雄皆出現漲多後腰斬修正暫時須時間整理;反而,落後之散裝航運股等逢低有接棒表現之機會。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">鋼鐵股:建議還是以受惠美國基礎建設之個股,如<span lang="EN-US">2027</span>大成鋼、<span lang="EN-US">8415</span>大國鋼、<span lang="EN-US">2031</span>新光鋼等個股逢低介入應仍有可為。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">電子股:長多之電動車相關供應鏈題材之個股,為優先逢低布局之標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">落後指標</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">金融</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">+</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">證券等類股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">一旦全面同步轉強</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">指數卻是量大不漲時</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">應可視為短線另一次之退出訊號</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之操作整理如下:因為台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月線多空分界點位置則已拉高至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17677</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。故操作上筆者建議</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(1)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">在</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">未站上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17677</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之前</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,保守<span lang="EN-US">3</span>成以內或是觀望就好。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(2)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若是站上<span lang="EN-US">17677</span>點之後,<span lang="EN-US">5~7</span>成資金,擇優擇強操作。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段手中持股建議須順勢、且隨時保持機動性。持股請務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,抑或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-42986635214416567142021-07-04T07:00:00.028+08:002021-07-04T07:00:00.221+08:00~~台股7月多方下檔17180點不失守即可;否則須提防中期波段以上之修正!!<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">筆者本專欄僅以正統技術分析之觀點看台股<span lang="EN-US">~</span>其他消息面等,筆者接暫時忽略部討論之。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">照慣例直接進入主題,現階段之台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序已正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點由</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份的</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16125</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點快速地向上拉高</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">1055</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17180</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">意即台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份裡指數皆不適宜低於</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17180</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點以下,表示</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股指數任何的壓回的幅度都需要控制在</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">530</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點以內</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">則台股長多格局持續不變</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">故</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">操作上與選股上</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">注意類股輪動的脈動</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">即對於漲勢過速</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">與漲幅過大者就不追高</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">資金則可留意甫於低檔放亮起漲之個股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所以</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">對於短線漲幅過高且爆量之族群</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">勿過度追高</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">因為市場裡之聰明資金自然會尋找出路</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">轉進新的標的</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。不管在任何時刻,操作上想要趨吉避凶、賺多賠少的目標的話,就請跟著市場的資金走就對了。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-highlight: yellow;">量價分析看台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">承襲本專欄前一</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文中所言</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:台股日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線型態上,<span lang="EN-US">(05/10)</span>高點<span lang="EN-US">17304</span>點位置站上後,<span lang="EN-US">”</span>日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線<span lang="EN-US">”</span>就可以視之為<span lang="EN-US">”</span>破底翻<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之偏多訊號。至此真的要為台股多頭地韌性鼓勵按讚囉<span lang="EN-US">!</span>所以持續利用盤中震盪時,擇優擇強操作。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">技術面看現階段之台股:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(1)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">中長線波段持續偏多看法不變。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(2)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">短線日線上,則已出現高檔背離之警訊;隨時提防大幅度之劇烈震盪。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(3)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">極短線<span lang="EN-US">(</span>分時小時線<span lang="EN-US">)</span>:只能前進,不能後退。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">新台幣匯率</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">資金行情</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">全球之中國武漢肺炎疫情仍持續噬虐中</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;惟全球歐美日台等重要股市卻是在資金充沛的條件下,相互比價輪流創高中。在疫情下的內需經濟急凍下,呈現相當極端的異常現象。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">技術分析看新台幣匯率</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:新台幣長線升值趨勢之仍不變;惟</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">短線上已暫時出現</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">止升震盪整理待變</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">之訊號</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">新台幣匯率對於台股之影響看法如下:中期波段須看<span lang="EN-US">28.92</span>元,未來淤密切留意:若是新台幣匯率未來若是止升回貶至<span lang="EN-US">28.92</span>元之上的話,代表台幣鮭魚回流台股的中期波段<span lang="EN-US">"</span>資金行情<span lang="EN-US">"</span>,視之為將告一段落之訊號。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之操作整理如下:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則拉高調整至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17180</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段操作的策略:現階段除了逢低注意三低一高個股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,若再加上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">漲價題材者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將可以提高操作的安全度</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">手中持股建議<span lang="EN-US">5</span>成左右即可,隨時保持機動性。持股請務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,抑或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-51044298185772872582021-05-30T10:00:00.031+08:002021-05-30T10:00:00.220+08:00~~台股5月份只剩下(05/31)(一)!拉越高越好!~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">筆者本專欄僅以正統技術分析之觀點看台股<span lang="EN-US">~</span>其他消息面等,筆者接暫時忽略部討論之。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">照慣例直接進入主題,現階段之台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序即將正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點快速</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">向下調整至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16125</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。意即台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,台股指數只要任何的壓回</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">都可以守住台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16125</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之上的話,則台股之波段多頭格局持續不變</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月收盤指數還要再等待下周一</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(05/31)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">的收盤位置</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(05/28)(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">五</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16870</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;所以,下周一<span lang="EN-US">(05/31)</span>的收盤,多頭最好再接再厲持續上漲<span lang="EN-US">125</span>點以上為佳。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">因為,若是台股下周一<span lang="EN-US">(05/31)</span>可以收盤在<span lang="EN-US">16995</span>點以上者。未來的<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月短線上即有相當大再次挑戰歷史新高點<span lang="EN-US">(04/29)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">17709</span>點之機會。反之,六月份仍有機會出現類似<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月份台股之大幅劇烈震盪之情形。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所以</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">對於短線漲幅過高且爆量之族群</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">勿過度追高</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">因為市場裡之聰明資金自然會尋找出路</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">轉進新的標的</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。不管在任何時刻,操作上想要趨吉避凶、賺多賠少的目標的話,就請跟著市場的資金走就對了。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-highlight: yellow;">量價分析看台股</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">]</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股短期內由</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(04/29)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">之歷史新高點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17709</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點後</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">即出現獲利了結的連續性大量之獲利性拉回</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">價跌量增</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">價跌量增</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">共計</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">個交易日至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(05/12)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">之低點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15165</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點止跌反彈且合併出現台股歷史上新當日天量能達</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">7727</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">億元</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">真是夠誇張</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">才止跌反彈</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">跌深反彈則出現明顯價漲量縮;下跌量增<span lang="EN-US">+</span>反彈量縮,加上台股日<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線型態上,<span lang="EN-US">(05/10)</span>高點<span lang="EN-US">17304</span>點位站上之前,台股就暫時先以<span lang="EN-US">"</span>技術性跌深反彈格局<span lang="EN-US">"</span>視之即可。極短線分時上,若是出現放量不漲就先行調節吧。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">新台幣匯率</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">資金行情</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">從去年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年初的</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">中國武漢病毒</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">席捲全球之後</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,為了挽救崩跌的國際金融市場,迄今</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">全球美國</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、中國、歐盟等,皆啟動所謂的史上最大規模的印鈔救市行動,現階段的台股當然也是屬於全球資金行情之一;甚至加上<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年來外流的資金紛紛返鄉,更具備<span lang="EN-US">"</span>火上加油<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之情境<span lang="EN-US">(PS</span>:比<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>的金融海嘯時更大規模的救市行動<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。但是,水能載舟、亦能覆舟<span lang="EN-US">"~~</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">技術分析看新台幣</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">短線上已暫時出現</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">止升整理</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">之訊號</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;注意除非止升貶值至<span lang="EN-US">28.65</span>元以上;否則,長線新台幣趨勢之多頭不變。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">筆者老話持續重提:台灣本身並無法創造新的多空趨勢;現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等,尤其是</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Nasdaq</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">與費城半導體指數等,應該是相似度、準確度等超高的分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之操作整理如下:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則壓低調整至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16165</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。須注意台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份下周一</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(05/31)(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">一</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">之收盤指數位置</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若是無法站上台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之台股月線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16995</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">則須</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">隨時提防會再次出現超大幅度的上下震盪,短線在操作上需盡量避免過度追高才是。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">現階段台股選股策略,不建議追逐漲幅已大者;反而,留意有題材<span lang="EN-US">+</span>新放量之標的為先。短線上<span lang="EN-US">“</span>守株待兔<span lang="EN-US">”</span>亦是現階段趨吉避凶、進可攻、退可守的明確做法。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段操作的策略:現階段除了逢低注意三低一高個股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,若再加上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">漲價題材者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將可以提高操作的安全度</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">手中持股建議<span lang="EN-US">3~5</span>成以下,隨時保持機動性。持股請務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,抑或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-24745760798558298632021-05-02T06:00:00.001+08:002021-05-02T06:00:00.242+08:00~~台股5月份多頭最重要的任務是需守住16995點!!~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">台北股市<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月份收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">17566</span>點,共計上漲<span lang="EN-US">1278</span>點,月成交量為<span lang="EN-US">8.4</span>兆元。量價皆創歷史新高。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">照慣例直接進入主題,現階段之台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序即將正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點快速</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">向上急速拉升至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16995</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。意即台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,台股指數只要任何的壓回</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">都可以守住台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16995</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之上的話,則台股之長多格局持續不變</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">17566</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,與台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">16996</span>點之差距縮小為<span lang="EN-US">570</span>點;台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">15040</span>點,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">與台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16996</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">極快速向上拉升</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">1956</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">為筆者長期追蹤每月份多空分界點以來最大的拉升指數點數</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">顯示現階段台股市場之多頭樂觀氣氛高漲</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">但是在極短線上反而需要面臨技術面買超過熱</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">興奮過樂之警訊</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,極</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">短線上多頭已見過熱之訊號明確</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">隨時皆會出現大幅度的上沖下洗大震盪的情形</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">反之,若是台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之交易過程中,台股加權指數短線上若是跌破,甚至若是連</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月線收盤指數亦跌破</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16996</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點,則不管當下市場上的消息面的原因與理由為何</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">??</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">皆表示台股指數</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">由</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月以來,台股中長期翻多訊號迄今,台股之中長線多方攻勢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將會面臨重大的轉折挑戰。因為</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若一旦</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份下檔無法守住</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16996</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點的下檔多頭重要支撐指數,就要有台股短中期波段多頭趨勢,極可能將由多翻空或者是漲多震盪將出現大拉回整理的可能。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所以</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">對於短線漲幅過高且爆量之族群</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">勿過度追高</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">因為市場裡之聰明資金自然會尋找出路</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">轉進新的標的</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。不管在任何時刻,操作上想要趨吉避凶、賺多賠少的目標的話,就請跟著市場的資金走就對了。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">筆者老話持續重提:台灣本身並無法創造新的多空趨勢;現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等,尤其是</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Nasdaq</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">與費城半導體指數等,應該是相似度、準確度等超高的分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-highlight: yellow;">新台幣匯率</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">(</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-highlight: yellow;">資金行情</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">沒錯</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">!</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">從去年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年初的</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">中國武漢病毒</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">席捲全球之後</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,為了挽救崩跌的國際金融市場,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">全球美國</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、中國、歐盟等,皆啟動所謂的史上最大規模的印鈔救市行動<span lang="EN-US">(PS</span>:比<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>的金融海嘯時更大規模的救市行動<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">沒錯<span lang="EN-US">!</span>這就是資金行情不用懷疑!對於台股而言:自<span lang="EN-US">1990</span>年創下<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點以來修正等待整整<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年的<span lang="EN-US">"</span>資金<span lang="EN-US">"</span>再度光臨台股,現階段仍在進行中,直到出現盤頭爆大量的連續長黑後。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之操作整理如下:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則大幅度壓低至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16996</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份因</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">正面乖離過大</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">亦即短線已處於嚴重超買過熱階段</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,隨時會出現超大幅度的上下震盪,短線在操作上需盡量避免過度追高才是。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股短線上<span lang="EN-US">“</span>守株待兔<span lang="EN-US">”</span>才是現階段趨吉避凶、進可攻、退可守的明確做法。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段操作的策略:現階段除了逢低注意三低一高個股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,若再加上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">漲價題材者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將可以提高操作的安全度</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">手中持股建議<span lang="EN-US">5</span>成即可,保持機動性。持股請務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,抑或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-77690433297682869892021-04-05T08:00:00.025+08:002021-04-05T08:00:00.293+08:00~~台股4月為何"震盪會很大”???<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">[</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;"> </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">股市泡沫<span lang="EN-US">?? </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">近來財經媒體裡</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">陸續看到許多台股名嘴說到</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股泡沫</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">其實</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">筆者個人亦認同現今此時刻與此位置台股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、甚至是有美國股市為首支各國際股市,也似乎都已有<span lang="EN-US">”</span>泡沫危機<span lang="EN-US">”</span>。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">惟似乎更明顯的是:股市最奇妙的地方就是:只有少數人才是最後的贏家;多數人想到的基本上都<span lang="EN-US">(</span>暫時<span lang="EN-US">)</span>不會發生。亦即若是多數的散戶都知道股市即將面臨<span lang="EN-US">”</span>泡沫危機<span lang="EN-US">"</span>的話,那麼市場主力將如何調節出貨呢<span lang="EN-US">??</span>亦即股是一定會繼續暫時撐住、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">直到多數人對於高檔之戒心慢慢消失後</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">真正的泡沫危機</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">就會真正出現</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">長久以來</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">股市</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">甚至國際個金融市場</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">經驗值告之皆是如此</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">照慣例直接進入主題,現階段之台股技術面筆者個人分析如下:台股時序即將正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點快速向下壓回至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15040</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。意即台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,台股指數只要可以守住台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15040</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之上,則台股之長多格局持續不變</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若是遇到較大幅的震盪壓回之時</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">可逢低量力伺機逢低擇強持續偏多操作。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16431</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">與台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15040</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之差距高達</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">+1391</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之多</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">為近年當月正價差之最高水準</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">顯示現階段台股的是常看多樂觀氣氛再次高漲</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">但是卻面臨興奮過樂之警訊</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">短線上過勒之訊號明確</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">隨時皆會出現大幅度的上沖下洗的情形</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">反之,若是台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之交易過程中,台股加權指數短線上若是跌破,甚至若是連</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月線收盤指數亦跌破</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15040</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點,則不管消息面的原因與理由為何</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">??</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">則由</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月以來,台股中長期翻多訊號迄今,台股之中長線多方攻勢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將會面臨重大挑戰。因為</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若一旦</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份下檔無法守住</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15854</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點下檔多頭重要支撐指數,就要有台股短中期波段多頭趨勢,將可能由多翻空或者是漲多震盪大拉回整理的可能。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所以</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">對於短線漲幅過高且爆量之族群</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">勿過度追高</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">因為市場裡之資金轉進之標的</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> [ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">判別台股中長期波段後市的漲跌多空趨勢方向,假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望能夠順應趨勢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、且</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">順勢為之,其實很簡單。就是筆者一直以來即清楚告知:台灣本身並無法創造新的多空趨勢;現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等,尤其是</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Nasdaq</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">與費城半導體指數等,應該是相似度、準確度等超高的分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月份之操作整理如下:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則大幅度壓低至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">15040</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點。台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">4</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月份因</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">正面乖離過大</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">亦即短線已處於嚴重超買過熱階段</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,隨時會出現超大幅度的上下震盪,短線在操作上需避免追高殺低才是</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">短線上<span lang="EN-US">“</span>守株待兔<span lang="EN-US">”</span>才是現階段趨吉避凶、進可攻、退可守的明確做法。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">現階段操作的策略:現階段除了逢低注意三低一高個股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,若再加上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">漲價題材者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">將可以提高操作的安全度</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">手中持股建議<span lang="EN-US">5</span>成即可,保持機動性。持股請務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,抑或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-26342444535317905772021-03-01T01:30:00.001+08:002021-03-01T01:30:01.390+08:00~~台股3月為何可能是"非盤即跌"???<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">承襲筆者的專業技術分析風格</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">照慣例直接進入主題</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">現階段之台股技術面筆者個人分析如下</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">線理論<span lang="EN-US">**</span>酒田戰法</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月之月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線再一支收紅</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,<span lang="EN-US">(02/26)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">15953</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。高點在<span lang="EN-US">(01/22)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">16579</span>點,就<span lang="EN-US">”K</span>線理論<span lang="EN-US">”</span>而言:台股之月<span lang="EN-US">K </span>線由<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">~2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月連四個月皆收紅收高;亦稱之為<span lang="EN-US">”</span>月線四手紅盤<span lang="EN-US">”</span>,屬於<span lang="EN-US">"</span>長線多方強勢<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之訊號。其中,四手紅盤的第一支紅<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線,<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月之高低點,即<span lang="EN-US">12480~13969</span>點為長多下檔之支撐區域。只要<span lang="EN-US">12480~13969</span>點重大之支撐區域為正式跌破之前,指數在短中期任何的回檔,皆可暫時視之為<span lang="EN-US">"</span>漲多拉回修正;直到<span lang="EN-US">12480~13969</span>點重大之支撐區域被跌破,則就視為自<span lang="EN-US">2010.03.19.</span>之<span lang="EN-US">8523</span>點以來之長多攻勢結束,將進入中期時間與空間之修正整理。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">惟現階段台股在極短線上卻是正乖離過大且過熱之訊號,提防隨時出啟動短中期的技術性快速壓回修正。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股時序即將正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點快速向上提升至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15854</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。意即台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,台股指數務必要力守在台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15854</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之上,則可量力伺機逢低擇強偏多操作。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">反之,單純以技術分析的觀點,完全不理會任何消息面的利多利空的干擾,若是台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之交易過程中,台股加權指數若是跌破,甚至若是連</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月線收盤指數亦跌破</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15854</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點,則不管消息面的原因與理由為何</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">??</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">則由</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月以來</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股中長期翻多訊號迄今</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,台股</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將出現第一個重大挑戰</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">一旦</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份下檔無法守住</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15854</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點支撐指數</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">就要有台股短中期波段多頭趨勢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將可能由多翻空或者是漲多震盪大拉回整理的心理準備了。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">需特別特別特別注意</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:台股二月之月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線,<span lang="EN-US">(02/26)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span>收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">15953</span>點,與台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">15854</span>點,兩者之間僅有<span lang="EN-US">99</span>點之差距。一旦跌破就須注意台股隨時啟動出現快速震盪修正。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">承襲筆者前一<span lang="EN-US">po</span>文標題<span lang="EN-US">"~~</span>台股<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月為什麼<span lang="EN-US">??</span>”只能前進,不能後退。不進則退”的理由<span lang="EN-US">??(PS</span>:祥請見 <span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2742269">http://blog.cnyes.com/My/david510926/article2742269</a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">之<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文即可<span lang="EN-US">)~~</span>現階段<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月當下支台股下檔只有<span lang="EN-US">99</span>點之空間可以修正。若是跌破則台股指數部分就會暫時呈現短線<span lang="EN-US">"</span>非盤即跌<span lang="EN-US">"</span>的窘境。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">判別台股中長期波段後市的漲跌多空趨勢方向,假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望能夠順應趨勢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、且</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">順勢為之,其實很簡單。就是筆者一直以來即清楚告知:台灣本身並無法創造新的多空趨勢;現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等,尤其是</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Nasdaq</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">與費城半導體指數等,應該是相似度、準確度等超高的分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">市場資金流向之研判</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">新台幣匯率強弱等表現,亦是現階段最重要的觀盤研判的最重要指標。短線新台幣匯率仍是全球的最強勢貨幣之一。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若是單純以</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">技術分析</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">的觀點而言:本波段新台幣匯率強勢升值趨勢之測量滿足點為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">26.937</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">元;另外,若是有出現止升回貶站上至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">29.035</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">的話,亦可視之為本波段新台幣的超強勢升值趨勢將是暫時告一段落的訊號。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之操作整理如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則大幅度提高至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15854</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月的觀盤重點是</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">不宜跌超過</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">99</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點以上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">只能小退</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">不能大回。否則須提防較大規模之上下震盪</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段操作的策略:現階段除了逢低注意三低一高個股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,若再加上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">漲價題材者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將可以提高操作的安全度</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">才可以進可攻</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">退可守</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">趨吉避凶</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">手中持股建議<span lang="EN-US">5</span>成即可,保持機動性。持股請務必設好停利<span lang="EN-US">(</span>或是停損<span lang="EN-US">)</span>點。只要<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日不過高,抑或是跌破<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日低者,就須請先退出;資金即轉進當下新轉強之族群。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-19089223409544841492021-01-31T09:00:00.029+08:002021-01-31T09:00:00.175+08:00~~台股2月為什麼??”只能前進,不能後退。不進則退”的理由??<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">
</span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">農曆新年就快來了</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">距離封關僅剩</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">7</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個交易日</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在此先跟各位投資朋友拜個早年</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">!</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">祝福大家金牛年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">新年快樂</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">!</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">身體健康</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">!</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">獲利滿滿</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">!</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">心想事成</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">!</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">平安喜樂</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">!</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股元月之月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線連</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">紅</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,<span lang="EN-US">(01/29)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15138</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。高點在<span lang="EN-US">(01/21)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">16238</span>點;惟留下長達<span lang="EN-US">1100</span>點之上影線,顯示:中期波段持續大漲的台股,短線上已於<span lang="EN-US">16000</span>點附近,與國際盤亦是同步出現漲多拉回。春節長假前夕之賣壓已提前紛紛湧出。對於波段已高漲之族群,須注意逢高利多不漲之賣訊;若想抱股過年之標的須留意轉進低基期之標的。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">承襲筆者的專業技術分析風格</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">照慣例直接進入主題</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段之台股技術面筆者個人分析如下</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股時序即將正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點快速向上提升至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15256</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。意即台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份,台股指數務必要力守在台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15256</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點之上,則可量力伺機逢低擇強偏多操作。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">反之,單純以技術分析的觀點,完全不理會任何消息面的利多利空的干擾,若是台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之交易過程中,台股加權指數若是跌破,甚至若是連</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之月線收盤指數亦跌破</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15256</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點,則不管消息面的原因與理由為何</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">??</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">則由</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月以來</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股中長期翻多訊號迄今</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">將出現第一個重大挑戰了</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">一旦</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份無法站回</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15256</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點指數</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">就要有台股中長期波段多頭趨勢將可能由多翻空或者是漲多震盪大拉回整理的心理準備了。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">需特別特別特別注意</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:台股元月之月收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">15138</span>點,已經低於台股<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">15256</span>點。所以,<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月以來,台股中長期翻多訊號迄今,首度要面臨連續性起的空頭的重兵反擊了。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">技術面預估台股中長線之上檔初步測量滿足位置</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">承襲筆者前</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">文:台股近年幾乎相對全球重要股市強勢,長線上看</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">萬甚至更高當然是機會無窮,筆者相信所有人對於本波段中期之上檔初步的基本滿足點位置為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15871</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">( 12197-8523=3074</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3074+12197=15871</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,僅供參考而已</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">~~</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股元月之月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">線連</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">紅,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(01/29)(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">五</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15138</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。高點在</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(01/21)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">的</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">16238</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">越過上述之上檔初步滿足點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15871</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點後</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">即出現大震盪後快速拉回修正</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">目前尚屬合理正常</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">惟對於漲高者逢高請注意賣點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">勿再追高買進</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">以防套牢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">判別台股中長期波段後市的漲跌多空趨勢方向,假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望能順應趨勢順勢為之,其實很簡單。就是筆者一直以來即清楚告知:台灣本身並無法創造趨勢;現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等,尤其是</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Nasdaq</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">與費城半導體指數等,應該是相似度、準確度等超高的分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">市場資金流向之研判</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">新台幣匯率強弱等表現,亦是現階段最重要的觀盤研判的最重要指標。短線新台幣匯率仍是全球的最強勢貨幣之一。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">若是單純以</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">技術分析</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">的觀點而言:本波段新台幣匯率強勢升值趨勢之測量滿足點為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">26.937</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">元;另外,若是有出現止升回貶站上至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">29.035</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">的話,亦可視之為本波段新台幣的超強勢升值趨勢將是暫時告一段落的訊號。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之操作整理如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則大幅度提高至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">15256</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">點。台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">月的觀盤重點是</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">只能前進</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">不能後退。不進則退</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">現階段操作的策略:現階段只能逢低注意三低一高個股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">,才可以進可攻</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">退可守</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">趨吉避凶</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">~~</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-18436421221589939122021-01-03T08:00:00.001+08:002021-01-03T08:00:02.892+08:00~~台股中期波段的上檔初步滿足點為???台股為何萬事如意(14000)??萬五一失(15000)??~~<p> <b><span lang="EN-US"> 2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年全球終於在驚濤駭浪下落幕了</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。動作靈活的鼠年即將過去了;即將進入體型偏大的金牛年。在此先向投資朋友拜個早年,祝福投資朋友身體健康<span lang="EN-US">!</span>心想事成<span lang="EN-US">!</span>平安喜樂<span lang="EN-US">!</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2020</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">庚子年雖然全年怪事特別多,但是在全球央行皆努力印鈔救市的資金寬鬆下,國際各金融市場皆在大量資金衝擊下,紛紛輪動持續上漲。<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>全年台股最低在<span lang="EN-US">8523</span>點、最高在<span lang="EN-US">14760</span>點,<span lang="EN-US">(12/31)</span>年收盤價為<span lang="EN-US">14732</span>點、幾乎收在全年的最高點附近。<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年的台股年<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線大長紅,顯示<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年肯定仍有更高點可期。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span><span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台股時序將正式進入</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span><span lang="EN-US">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">線之長線多空分界點快速向上提升至</span><span lang="EN-US">13687</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點。意即台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份,台股指數任何壓回只要不跌破台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">線之長線多空分界點</span><span lang="EN-US">13687</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,則皆持續可量力伺機逢低擇強偏多操作。在技術面上顯示:台股中長期波段偏多之訊號尚未改變。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">反之,單純以技術分析的觀點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">完全不理會任何消息面的利多利空的干擾</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若是台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份之交易過程中,台股加權指數若是跌破,甚至連</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份之月線收盤指數亦跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">13687</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點,則不管消息面的原因與理由為何</span><span lang="EN-US">??</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">則就要有台股中長期波段多頭趨勢將可能由多翻空的心理準備了。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">技術面預估台股中長線之上檔初步測量滿足位置</span><span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台股近年幾乎相對全球重要股市強勢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,長線上看<span lang="EN-US">2</span>萬甚至更高當然是機會無窮,筆者</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">相信所有人對於本波段中期之上檔初步的基本滿足點位置為</span><span lang="EN-US">15871</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">( 12197-8523=3074</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span><span lang="EN-US">3074+12197=15871</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">僅供參考而已</span><span lang="EN-US">~~</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span><span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若是長期追蹤筆者本專欄的投資朋友</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一定很清楚</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">筆者幾乎都會特別提醒讀者</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">判別台股中長期波段後市的漲跌多空趨勢方向</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望能順應趨勢順勢為之,其實很簡單。就是筆者一直以來即清楚告知:台灣本身並無法創造趨勢;現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">尤其是</span><span lang="EN-US">Nasdaq</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">與費城半導體指數等</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">應該是相似度、準確度等超高的分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">市場資金流向之研判</span><span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">新台幣匯率強弱等表現,亦是現階段最重要的觀盤研判的最重要指標。短線新台幣匯率仍是全球的最強勢貨幣之一</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若是單純以</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">技術分析</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的觀點而言</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本波段新台幣匯率強勢升值趨勢之測量滿足點為</span><span lang="EN-US">26.937</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">元</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">另外</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若是有出現止升回貶站上至</span><span lang="EN-US">29.035</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的話,亦可視之為本波段新台幣的超強勢升值趨勢將是暫時告一段落的訊號</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">甚至有機會變成為</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">破底翻”之波段</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">止升回貶</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,正式波段由強轉貶之趨勢。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">結論</span><span lang="EN-US"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份之操作整理如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b> <span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則大幅度提高至</span><span lang="EN-US">13687</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點。亦為現階段下檔之重大支撐位置所在</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">;只要支撐</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不跌破,皆可逢低擇強擇強介入。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">選股策略:現階段相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者,在市場資金轉進之後,電子</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">傳產</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">金融等皆有輪動表現之機會</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US">~~</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span><span lang="EN-US">~~</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所有之多</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或是空</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或是停損</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span><span lang="EN-US">~~<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-84950760626334333362020-12-06T08:00:00.036+08:002020-12-06T08:00:11.049+08:00~~台股12月萬四如意!!萬五一失!!~~<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>11</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份裡最重要的大事當然就是</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:舉世關注的<span lang="EN-US">”(11/03)</span>的美國總統大選<span lang="EN-US">"</span>。川普連任失利、拜登勝出幾乎已是定局<span lang="EN-US">?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">承襲本專欄前一<span lang="EN-US">PO</span>文及明確指出:其實別太過於緊張,不管是誰當選與否,對於全球金融市場、尤其是股票市場的中期波段後市之多空發展,勢必會出現重大的影響。很清楚的很肯定的就是:請各位投資朋友勿過度自我解讀多或空的趨勢;屆時還是要由市場來自行來表態。切記<span lang="EN-US">!</span>切記!對於美國總統大選過後,整體國際金融市場與美股等,在此不確定的因素消失後,幾乎都以正面表態。所以,台股當然亦隨勢順勢盤堅走高,短線持續創高。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">(12/04)(</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">五</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">)</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">台股日</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">K</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">線收盤指數為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">14132</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">點。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ]</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> <b>(12/04)(</b></span><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">五</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股日</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線收盤指數為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">14132</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點。台股時序將正式進入</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線之長線多空分界點急速向上拉高至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12973</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點。意即台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份裡,任何壓回只要不跌破台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2020</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">K</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12973</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點,則皆可量力逢低擇強或是布局的偏多操作。所以,現階段的台股位置,在技術面上仍顯示:台股中長期波段偏多之訊號尚未改變。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">反之,若是台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份之過程中</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,台股</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">加權指數若是跌破,甚至連</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份之月線收盤指數亦跌破</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12973</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點,則不管消息面的原因為何</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">??</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">就要有台股中長期波段多頭趨勢將可能由多翻空的心理準備了。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望順應趨勢順勢為之,其實很簡單。就是筆者長期以來即清楚告知:台灣本身並無法創造趨勢;現階段中長期波段之趨勢研判</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">還是以觀察美股四大指數等為優先參考指標</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">因為長期以來其為相似度</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">準確度的超高分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股短中期後市波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">市場資金流向之研判</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">新台幣匯率強弱等表現,亦是現階段最重要的觀盤研判的最重要指標</span></u></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。短線新台幣匯率仍是全球的相對強勢貨幣之一</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">本波段台股可以強勢攻過</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1990</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年之歷史高點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12682</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">過</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">13000</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">、</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">甚至一舉越過</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">14000</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點關卡</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">新台幣的強力升值效應當然是最大的功臣</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。即本波段台股<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點以後的強力攻勢,由海外回流的內資是最大主力。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">目前新台幣短線強勢升值趨勢不變;</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">惟新台幣的技術面線型若是出現回貶站上</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">29.035</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的話</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,將視之為本波段新台幣的超強勢升值趨勢將是暫時告一段落的訊號。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">另外在美元指數方面:若在站上<span lang="EN-US">92.13</span>關卡,即可以視為<span lang="EN-US">"</span>破底翻<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之波段多方轉強之訊號,將正式走出波段強勢之趨勢。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-highlight: yellow;">筆者純個人如何看美總統大選之後,全球股市之中期波段後市發展</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">??</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">請各位投資朋友</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">用您的想像力</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">”</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">超前佈署</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">"</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">一下</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">承襲本專欄前一</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">PO</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">文指出</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(11/03)</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">美國總統大選應該是由民主黨的候選人拜登當選</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(??)</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。在<span lang="EN-US">(2021/01/20)</span>就職日之前,對於落選川普總統其金主而言,在川普執政<span lang="EN-US">4</span>年來皆已大漲一倍以上的美股四大指數而言,<span lang="EN-US">(11/03~01/20)</span>應該是其川普金主們,最佳的高檔震盪出貨的最佳機會;相反地,對於獲勝者拜登之金主們,理應當然不願被當冤大頭,在相對高檔來接手。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">所以筆者認為美股四大指數於<span lang="EN-US">(11/03~~2021/01/20)</span>會先呈現高檔震盪,而在接近新總統拜登就職日<span lang="EN-US">(01/20)</span>前夕會領先開始走低壓回。筆者亦即認為:川普總統的金主們想高檔獲利了結,拜登總統的金主們當然不會想當冤大頭,當然要有明顯的回檔後才會進場來承接吧。以上是筆者的推論與邏輯,各位投資朋友您認為呢<span lang="EN-US">??</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">若是上述的吞論邏輯沒錯的話,</span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">明年元月元旦國曆新年過後至<span lang="EN-US">(01/20)</span>美國總統拜登就職之前,即是元月上中旬應該會出現一個短中期波段的相對高點或是賣點</span></u></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: red; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份之操作整理如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> 12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則大幅度提高至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12793</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點。支撐不跌破,皆可逢低擇強擇強介入。筆者認為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">12</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月台股仍是類股輪動</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">不必追高漲幅已大之標的</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">;</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">而相對漲勢落後之族群或是甫帶量放大者之標的</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">則是積極切入之對象</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">選股策略:現階段相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者,在資金轉進,筆者強調:位階、位階、位階一定要夠低,進可攻、退可守之逢低布局之標的。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">~~</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">所有之多</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">或是空</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">(</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">或是停損</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">)</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">~~</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><br /><p></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-6955011890300697612020-11-01T08:00:00.023+08:002020-11-01T08:00:18.923+08:00~~台股11有驚奇之旅??~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>11</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份裡最重要的大事是甚麼</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">?答案很清楚,舉世皆知就是<span lang="EN-US">”(11/03)</span>的美國總統大選<span lang="EN-US">"</span>。川普或是拜登誰會勝出<span lang="EN-US">????</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">其實別太過於緊張,不管是誰當選與否,對於全球金融市場、尤其是股票市場的中期波段後市之多空發展,勢必會出現重大的影響。請各位投資朋友勿過度自我解讀多或空的趨勢;屆時還是要由市場來自行來表態。切記<span lang="EN-US">!</span>切記!</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> (10/30)(</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">五</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">)</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">台股同時收日、週、月線,參考的意義最強烈。收盤指數為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">12546</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 11pt;">點。</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">[ </span></strong><strong><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股月</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">K</span></strong><strong><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> ]</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">:</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股時序將正式進入</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">2020</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">PO</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">2020</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">K</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後,台股</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">2020</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">K</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線之長線多空分界點向下後退至</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11336</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點。意即台股</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份裡,任何壓回只要不跌破台股</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">2020</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">K</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">線之長線多空分界點</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11336</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點,則皆可量力逢低擇強偏多操作。所以,現階段的台股位置,</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">(10/30)(</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">五</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">)</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股收盤指數為</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">12546</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點,在技術面上仍顯示:台股中長期波段偏多之訊號尚未改變。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">反之,若是台股</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份之過程中</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">,台股</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">加權指數若是跌破,甚至連</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份之月線收盤指數亦跌破</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11336</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點,則不管消息面的原因為合</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">??</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">就要有台股中長期波段多頭趨勢將可能由多翻空的心理準備了。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">[ </span></strong><strong><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> ]</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-align: start;"> </span><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望順應趨勢順勢為之,其實很簡單。就是筆者一直以來即清楚告知:台灣本身並無法創造趨勢;現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等應該是相似度</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">、</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">撙卻度等超高的分析依據。暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包。</span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">[
</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">市場資金流向之研判</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> ]</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-align: start;"> </span><strong style="text-align: start;"><u><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">新台幣匯率強弱等表現,亦是現階段最重要的觀盤研判的最重要指標</span></u></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。短線新台幣匯率仍是全球的相對強勢貨幣之一</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">;</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">惟若是出現止升回貶站上至</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">29.035</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的話</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">,將視之為本波段新台幣的超強勢升值趨勢將是暫時告一段落的訊號。而且若在站上<span lang="EN-US">94.74</span>關卡,即有成為<span lang="EN-US">"</span>破底翻<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之波段多方轉強之機會,正是走出波段強勢之趨勢。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">另外,美元指數部分:<span lang="EN-US">(10/30)</span>之收盤為<span lang="EN-US">93.88</span>,短線已經突破<span lang="EN-US">(03/220)</span>糕點<span lang="EN-US">102.99</span>點,將近<span lang="EN-US">8</span>個月以來之下降壓力線,暫時以化解了再弱勢探底的危機;</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">[ </span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-highlight: yellow;">筆者純個人如何看美總統大選之後,全球股市之中期波段後市發展</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">??</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">
]</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">(1)..</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">假如共和黨川普順利連任當選總統,對於中長期基期已高的美股須提防</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">"</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">利多出盡</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">"</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">後隻大修正</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">(2)..</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">假如是由民主黨的拜登當選的話,對於中長期基期已高的美股則有可能是</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">"</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中期波段利空修正的開始</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">"</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。亦即拜登應該不太可能接手共和黨川普留下來的,以資金拱至中長期基期已高的股市,理應先下殺之後,才有力量拉升的股市。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">[ </span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="background: yellow; color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">結論</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> ]
</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台股</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份之操作整理如下:</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">(1)..11</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則大幅度提高至</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">11336</span></strong><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">點。支撐不跌破,皆可逢低擇強擇強介入。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-align: start;"> </span><strong style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">選股策略:現階段相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者,在資金轉進,筆者強調:位階、位階、位階一定要夠低,進可攻、退可守之逢低布局之標的。</span></strong></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-justify: inter-ideograph; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">~~</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">~~</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">所有之多</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">(</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">或是空</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">)</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">(</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">或是停損</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">)</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">~~</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-2921090018224539982020-10-04T01:20:00.001+08:002020-10-04T01:20:18.668+08:00~~台股10月您不能不知的重點!! 台股10月份不只是"光輝”,而是"精彩刺激可期"的~~<p> <b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">承襲本專欄的制式風格:筆者一再地強調筆者是標準的技術分析的基本教義派,意即技術分析幾乎可以不必理會消息面的變化<span lang="EN-US">(PS</span>:除非是天災等無法事先預知,否則若是疾病、人禍、公司業績等,屬於人為因素就表示永遠都會有人比你先知道,可以先進場大量買進或是賣出股票;只是那個先知道的人應該永遠不會是您<span lang="EN-US">)</span>。</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> "</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">技術分析<span lang="EN-US">"</span>具備未來行情多空趨勢之領先性。而中長期波段之多空趨勢,就與航空母艦一般,它不會輕易改變;惟一旦改變之後則務必接受面對之。</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">K</span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span><span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:</span></b></p><p><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台股時序將正式進入</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span><span lang="EN-US">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,台股<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">則大幅度地向上拉升</span><span lang="EN-US">70</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">11885</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點。意即台股</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份裡</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">任何壓回只要不跌破台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">線之長線多空分界點</span><span lang="EN-US">11885</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">則皆可量力逢低承接偏多操作</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。所以,現階段的台股位置,<span lang="EN-US">(09/30)(</span>五<span lang="EN-US">)</span>台股收盤指數為<span lang="EN-US">12515</span>點,在技術面上仍顯示:台股中長期波段偏多之訊號尚未改變。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">反之,若是台股<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月若是跌破,甚至連<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份之月線收盤指數亦跌破<span lang="EN-US">11885</span>點,則不管消息面的原因為合<span lang="EN-US">??</span>就要有台股盤面可能已由多翻空的心理準備了。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">最好用的<span lang="EN-US">3%</span>定義與研判</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">原台股的歷史高點為<span lang="EN-US">1990</span>年的<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點,歷經<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年之後,終於在今年突破,迄今指數的高點暫時出現在<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">13031</span>點後陷入整理,市場一定很想確認<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點是否正式突破與否<span lang="EN-US">???</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">其實暫時先不用想太多,筆者就以技術分析中最簡單、最好用的<span lang="EN-US">"3%</span>理論<span lang="EN-US">"</span>來做最基本的確認。<span lang="EN-US">12682 * ( 1+3% )=13062</span>點。而台股今年來突破<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點,迄今台股短線的最高點,暫時落在<span lang="EN-US">(07/28)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">13031</span>點,卻小小可惜尚未越過<span lang="EN-US">3%</span>的確認位置<span lang="EN-US">13062</span>點。所以,筆者比較沒膽地認為:台股現階段仍無法確認是否<span lang="EN-US">"</span>正式突破<span lang="EN-US">"12682</span>點關卡;要是連台股<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點<span lang="EN-US">11885</span>點,就是屬於最糟糕的<span lang="EN-US">"</span>假突破真拉回破底<span lang="EN-US">"</span>,多頭騙線中的最危險的陷阱訊號。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望順應趨勢順勢為之</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其實很簡單</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">就是筆者一直以來即清楚告知</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台灣本身並無法創造趨勢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等應該是相似度超高的分析依據</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">新台幣匯率與國際股市等的強弱等表現,亦是現階段最重要的觀盤研判的最重要指標</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">筆者純個人如何看美總統大選之後,全球股市之後是發展<span lang="EN-US">?</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">? ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(1)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假如共和黨川普順利連任當選總統,對於中長期基期已高的美股須提防<span lang="EN-US">"</span>利多出盡<span lang="EN-US">"</span>後隻大修正。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(2)..</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假如是由民主黨的拜登當選的話,對於中長期基期已高的美股則有可能是<span lang="EN-US">"</span>中期波段利空修正的開始<span lang="EN-US">"</span>。亦即拜登應該不太可能接手共和黨川普留下來的,以資金拱至中長期基期已高的股市,理應先下殺之後,才有力量拉升的股市。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> ] </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份之操作整理如下:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(1)..10</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月份之台股指數中期波段位置則大幅度提高至<span lang="EN-US">11885</span>點。支撐不跌破,皆可逢低擇強擇強介入。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">選股策略:現階段相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者,在資金轉進,筆者強調:位階、位階、位階一定要夠低,進可攻、退可守之逢低布局之標的。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US">~~</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span><span lang="EN-US">~~</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所有之多</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或是空</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或是停損</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span><span lang="EN-US">~~<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6561330505767377109.post-42058214152090617572020-08-30T06:00:00.029+08:002020-08-30T06:00:02.820+08:00~~台股9月的密碼為.....~~<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">[ </span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">K</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-highlight: yellow;">線之長線多空分界點之觀點看台股後市發展</span><span lang="EN-US"> ]</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台股時序將正式進入</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份,承襲筆者本專欄</span><span lang="EN-US">PO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">文的慣例:根據筆者個人專用之操作系統顯示:台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">線之長線多空分界點經過綜合運算後</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,台股<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">則微幅向上修正為</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">11185</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點。意即台股</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份裡</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">任何壓回只要不跌破台股</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">K</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">線之長線多空分界點</span><span lang="EN-US">11185</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">則皆可量力逢低承接偏多操作</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而台股在</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份至</span><span lang="EN-US">(08/28)(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">五</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">收盤指數為</span><span lang="EN-US">12728</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">>>2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線之長線多空分界點</span><span lang="EN-US">11185</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">點</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">;下周一<span lang="EN-US">(08/31)</span>之<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月月<span lang="EN-US">K</span>線應不至於大跌至<span lang="EN-US">11185</span>點以下,所以現階段的台股迄今,在技術面上仍持續顯示:台股中期波段偏多之訊號持續不變。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">繼台股<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月份突破<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年前<span lang="EN-US">1990</span>年創下之<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點之歷史高點。台股<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月份的多數時間皆在前歷史高點<span lang="EN-US">12682</span>點之上震盪;以中期波段的眼光而言:現階段台股的中長期波段之多頭趨勢仍在持續中。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">大家都知道筆者是<span lang="EN-US">”</span>技術分析之基本教義派<span lang="EN-US">”</span>,量價絕對會領先告訴我們未來的發展。就讓筆者再領先當一隻<span lang="EN-US">”</span>小烏鴉<span lang="EN-US">”</span>對台股近來的線型提出一些警訊。即台股自<span lang="EN-US">(03/19)</span>的<span lang="EN-US">8523</span>點起多頭一路震盪區間以來,皆是關關難過、關關過;惟在<span lang="EN-US">(08/20)(</span>四<span lang="EN-US">)</span>台股的黑色星期四之巨量<span lang="EN-US">(3468</span>億元<span lang="EN-US">)</span>長黑<span lang="EN-US">(</span>盤中一度大跌<span lang="EN-US">600</span>點<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,台股極短線上技術面出現疑似<span lang="EN-US">”</span>假突破後之反向帶量下殺破線<span lang="EN-US">”</span>之多頭騙線之警訊。未來台股只要<span lang="EN-US">(08/20)(</span>四<span lang="EN-US">)</span>當天巨量長黑的低點<span lang="EN-US">12144</span>點支撐,若是再一次跌破失手的話,就將視之為台股多頭棄守轉弱之<span lang="EN-US">"</span>波段轉弱<span lang="EN-US">”</span>危險訊號。反之,台股多方仍在,逢回仍可持續選股偏多操作。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">台股波段多空趨勢研判之懶人包</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> ]</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">假如你沒有時間分析卻又希望順應趨勢順勢為之</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其實很簡單</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">就是筆者一直以來即清楚告知</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台灣本身並無法創造趨勢</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">;</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">現階段還是以觀察美股四大指數等應該是相似度超高的分析依據</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">暫時可以視之為研判台股波段多空分析超級準確的懶人包</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">新台幣匯率與國際股市等的強弱等表現,亦是現階段最重要的觀盤研判的最重要指標</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[ </span></b><b><span style="background: yellow; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-highlight: yellow;">結論</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> ]</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">台股<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份之技術分析整理如下:<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份之台股指數下檔短線支撐以提高至<span lang="EN-US">12144</span>點,中期波段位置則提高至<span lang="EN-US">11155</span>點,短中線下檔支撐皆不宜失守,否則將視為轉弱盤軟之訊號;只要任何拉回、支撐不跌破,皆可逢低擇強擇強介入。</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">選股策略:現階段相對價位低、本益比低、股淨比低、現金殖利率高者,在資金轉進,筆者強調:位階、位階、位階一定要夠低,進可攻、退可守之逢低布局之標的。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US">~~</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上純屬個人言論,僅供參考謹慎為之</span><span lang="EN-US">~~</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所有之多</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或是空</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">方操作內容,均需設好停利</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或是停損</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">位置,做對則設好停利點、做錯者則設好停損,遵守紀律、嚴格執行</span><span lang="EN-US">~~<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>順勢操作 小林講股 就勢論市http://www.blogger.com/profile/11138519014163350245noreply@blogger.com0